意大利10年期BTP收益率飙升至4%，为12月中旬以来的最高水平，因为最近的数据强化了美联储需要推迟降息的观点。尽管美国经济在第一季度的增长低于预期，但持续的通胀压力削弱了立即调整利率的预期。根据芝加哥商品交易所美联储观察工具，68.1%的交易员现在预计7月份利率将保持不变，高于前一天的55.9%。尽管如此，在欧洲，投资者仍在为欧洲央行今年三次降息做准备，随着通胀放缓和经济活动改善，首次降息最早可能在6月。与此同时，衡量意大利信贷风险的关键指标意大利和德国10年期国债收益率之间的利差升至138个基点，创下周新高。

The Italian 10-year BTP yield surged to 4%, the highest since mid-December, as recent data reinforced the view that the Fed will need to postpone rate cuts. While the US economy experienced lower-than-anticipated growth in Q1, persistent inflationary pressures tempered expectations for immediate rate adjustments. According to the CME Fed watch tool, 68.1% of traders now anticipate that interest rates will remain unchanged in July, up from only 55.9% the previous day. Still, in Europe, investors are bracing for three ECB rate cuts this year, with the initial cut potentially as early as June as inflation is slowing down and economic activity is improving. Meanwhile, the spread between Italian and German 10-year yields, a crucial measure of Italy's credit risk, rose to 138 basis points, a new weekly high.

周四，CAC 40指数进一步下跌至7975点，跌幅约1.5%，追随欧洲同行的下跌，此前美国最近的GDP数据显示，随着价格压力的增加，经济大幅放缓。继2024年第一季度收入下降2%至23.5亿欧元后，保乐力加以2.5%的跌幅脱颖而出。同样，家乐福在2024年第一季度销售额下降1.7%后，也下降了2.6%，而上一季度的销售额增长了0.3%。此外，尽管报告称第一季度销售额激增17%，但爱马仕仍出现了近4%的下滑。相反，赛诺菲股价上涨4%，此前该公司确认了全年指导意见，并在第一季度的销售额和利润数据超过了分析师的预期。此外，STMicroelectronics在第一季度利润增长超过预期10%的推动下，增长了约1%。此外，法国巴黎银行也上涨了近1%，该行重申了2024年的指导方针，并公布了超出市场预期的收益。

The CAC 40 fell further to 7,975 on Thursday, declining around 1.5% to track its European peers lower, after recent GDP figures for the US showed the economy slowed sharply along with mounting price pressures. Pernod Ricard stood out with a 2.5% drop, following a 2% fall in revenue to EUR 2.35 billion in Q1 2024. Similarly, Carrefour was down by 2.6% after a 1.7% decrease in Q1 2024 sales, compared with a 0.3% rise in the preceding quarter. Also, Hermes witnessed a downturn of nearly 4%, notwithstanding its report of a 17% surge in Q1 sales. Conversely, Sanofi shares were climbing 4% after the company confirmed its full-year guidance and surpassed analysts' expectations with its Q1 sales and profit figures. Additionally, STMicroelectronics saw a rise of around 1%, propelled by a better-than-expected 10% increase in Q1 profit. Furthermore, BNP Paribas added nearly 1% as well, as the bank reaffirmed its guidance for 2024 and reported earnings that exceeded market expectations.

周四下午，DAX指数下跌约1.3%，至17830点，追随欧洲和美国同行的下跌，此前美国的最新数据显示，经济增长疲软于预期，通胀压力上升，这进一步引发了人们对美联储不会很快降息的担忧。与此同时，交易员们继续消化公司业绩。SAP（-3.6%）、西门子（-1.4%）、空中客车（-3.2%）大幅下跌。另一方面，德意志银行在公布第一季度利润增长10%好于预期后反弹并飙升约7%。在数据方面，GfK消费者气候指标略好于市场预测。

The DAX was down about 1.3% to the 17830 level on Thursday afternoon, tracking its European and US peers lower, after fresh data for the US showed a softer-than-expected growth and rising inflationary pressures, which raised further concerns the Fed will not cut interest rates soon. Meanwhile, traders continue to digest corporate results. SAP (-3.6%), Siemens (-1.4%), Airbus (-3.2%) were sharply lower. On the other hand, Deutsche Bank rebounded and soared about 7% after reporting a better-than-expected 10% increase in first-quarter profit. On the data front, the GfK Consumer Climate Indicator came slightly better than market forecasts.

2024年3月，美国期房销售额比上月增长3.4%，是上月1.6%增长的两倍多，大大超过了市场预期的0.3%。南部的期房销售增长了7%，西部和东北部分别飙升了6.8%和2.7%，轻松抵消了中西部4.3%的下滑。NAR首席经济学家Lawrence Yun表示：“3月份的期房销售指数为78.2，是一年来最好的表现，但在过去12个月里，它仍然处于一个相当窄的区间，没有明显的突破。”。“只有在抵押贷款利率下降和库存增加的情况下，才会有意义的收益。”

Pending home sales in the United States rose by 3.4% from the previous month in March 2024, more than doubling the 1.6% increase seen in the previous month and significantly surpassing market expectations of a 0.3% advance. Pending home sales rose by 7% in the South, soared by 6.8% in the West, and 2.7% in the Northeast, comfortably offsetting the 4.3% slide in the Midwest. "March's Pending Home Sales Index – at 78.2 – marks the best performance in a year, but it still remains in a fairly narrow range over the last 12 months without a measurable breakout," said NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun. "Meaningful gains will only occur with declining mortgage rates and rising inventory."