加拿大5年期国债 (Canada5Y) 加自选

加拿大10年期政府债券收益率为3.78%，为11月下旬以来的最高水平，因为对美联储的持续鹰派预期与对英国央行即将降息的押注相矛盾。新数据显示，3月份国内年通货膨胀率为2.9%，低于预期。此外，加拿大央行追踪的核心通胀指标下降幅度超过预期，巩固了加拿大经济潜在通胀下降的希望。此前，本月早些时候公布的全国失业率和收缩性PMI再次上升，促使近三分之二的市场预计英国央行将在即将到来的6月会议上降息，并对加拿大政府债券提供了足够的支持，以限制美国国债更大幅度的债务抛售。

The yield on the Canadian 10-year government bond was at 3.78%, holding its highest level since late November as persistently hawkish expectations for the US Fed weighed against bets of an imminent rate cut for the BoC. New data showed that domestic annual inflation was at 2.9% in March, below expectations. Further, the core inflation measures tracked by the Canadian central bank fell more than expected to consolidate hopes of lower underlying inflation in the Canadian economy. The results followed a fresh increase in the national unemployment rate and contractionary PMIs released earlier in the month, driving nearly two-thirds of the market to expect a rate cut by the BoC in its upcoming June meeting, and supporting Canadian government bonds enough to limit the steeper selloff in debt taking place for US Treasuries.

4月，加元兑美元贬值超过1.38，为11月初以来的最低点，因为国内通胀放缓的证据促使市场对美国和加拿大的货币政策做出了对比预测。加拿大3月份的年通货膨胀率为2.9%，低于市场预期。此外，英国央行编制并密切关注的核心利率中值和平均值均远低于预期。这一结果促使交易员加大了对中国央行将在即将到来的6月会议上降息的押注，因为潜在通胀放缓的持续证据与经济疲软的迹象相吻合。尽管GDP数据强劲，但最新数据显示失业率显著上升，PMI数据持续指向收缩。另一方面，美国火热的经济数据推迟了美联储的降息押注，提振了美元。

The Canadian dollar depreciated past 1.38 per USD in April, its weakest since early November, as evidence of moderating domestic inflation drove markets to outline contrasting forecasts between US and Canadian monetary policy. The annual inflation rate in Canada was at 2.9% in March, below market expectations. Additionally, the trimmed mean and median core rates, which are compiled and closely watched by the BoC as gauges of underlying inflation for monetary policy decisions, were both firmly below expectations. The results drove traders to increase their bets that the BoC is due to a rate cut in its upcoming June meeting, as sustained evidence of slowing underlying inflation has been met with signs of a weaker economy. Despite robust GDP readings, the latest data showed a marked increase in the unemployment rate, and PMI figures continuously point to contractions. On the other hand, hot economic data in the US delayed rate cut bets by the Fed, lifting the US dollar.

加拿大的年通货膨胀率从2月份2.8%的八个月低点上升到2024年3月的2.9%，与加拿大银行2024年上半年3%的预测大致一致。汽油价格的大幅上涨（4.5%对2月份的0.8%）将运输通胀率推高至3%（对2.2%）。此外，加拿大银行长期的限制性利率，加上美国国债收益率的上升，使抵押贷款利息成本每年上升25.4%。因此，平均租金增长更快（8.5%对8.2%），使租金通胀率保持在6.5%。另一方面，食品通胀放缓（3%对3.3%），而服装和鞋类的通缩放缓（-2.7%对-4.2%）。与此同时，英国央行观察到，下调后的平均利率（3.1%对3.2%）和中值利率（2.8%对3.1%）的核心利率放缓幅度超过预期。

The annual inflation rate in Canada rose to 2.9% in March of 2024 from the eight-month low of 2.8% in February, roughly in line with the Bank of Canada’s forecast of 3% in the first half of 2024. A sharp rise in gasoline prices (4.5% vs 0.8% in February) pushed transportation inflation to 3% (vs 2.2%). Additionally, the prolonged period of restrictive interest rates by the Bank of Canada, in addition to increasing Treasury yields in the US, lifted mortgage interest costs by 25.4% annually. As a result, average rents grew faster (8.5% vs 8.2%), keeping rents inflation at 6.5%. On the other hand, food inflation slowed (3% vs 3.3%), while deflation moderated for clothing and footwear (-2.7% vs -4.2%). Meanwhile, the BoC-watched trimmed mean (3.1% vs 3.2%) and median (2.8% vs 3.1%) core rates slowed more than expected.

加拿大抵押贷款和住房公司的数据显示，2024年3月，加拿大的房屋开工量较上月下降7%，至242195套，低于市场预期的242200套。城市住房总开工的月度SAAR下降了7%，记录了220743套。多单元城市开工减少8%，至180229个单元，而单单元独立城市开工减少4%，至40514个单元。农村地区每月开工SAAR估计为21452台。

Housing starts in Canada fell by 7% over a month earlier to 242,195 units in March 2024, below market expectations of 242,200 units, according to the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation. The monthly SAAR of total urban housing starts decreased 7%, with 220,743 units recorded. Multi-unit urban starts decreased 8% to 180,229 units, while single-detached urban starts decreased 4% to 40,514 units. The rural starts monthly SAAR estimate was 21,452 units.