欧元/瑞郎 (EURCHF) 加自选

10年期德国国债收益率超过2.5%的阈值，达到11月27日以来的最高水平，因为在德黑兰周五早些时候明显淡化以色列对伊朗领土的袭击后，对中东更广泛冲突的担忧有所减弱。此外，受强劲的美国经济数据提振，投资者降低了对今年降息的预期。修订后的前景表明，欧洲央行今年总共降息的可能性不到三次，这意味着货币宽松将达到70个基点。尽管欧盟央行表示最早将于6月开始降低借贷成本，几位官员暗示今年将三次降息，但预期仍出现了这种调整。在其他地方，美联储官员主张美国央行推迟降息。

The yield on the 10-year German Bund surpassed the 2.5% threshold, reaching its highest level since November 27th, as concerns regarding a broader conflict in the Middle East diminished following Tehran's apparent downplaying of Israel's attack on Iranian soil earlier on Friday. Additionally, investors scaled back their expectations for interest rate cuts this year, buoyed by strong US economic data. The revised outlook suggests a probability of less than three ECB rate cuts in total for the year, implying a monetary easing of 70 basis points. This adjustment in expectations occurred despite the bloc's central bank signaling its readiness to start reducing borrowing costs as early as June, with several officials hinting at three rate cuts this year. Elsewhere, Federal Reserve officials are advocating for the US central bank to postpone rate cuts.

法兰克福DAX 40指数成功收复了早期的部分失地，周五下午下跌0.5%，收于17750点，仍徘徊在六周多的低点附近，因为对中东紧张局势可能升级的担忧开始缓解，特别是在伊朗明显淡化疑似以色列袭击之后。与此同时，市场消化了美联储官员更多的鹰派言论。纽约联储主席约翰·威廉姆斯强调，没有降息的紧迫性，而他的同事拉斐尔·博斯蒂克则表示，在年底之前不太可能放松政策。Neel Kashkari还表示，政策制定者可能全年将利率维持在当前水平。在经济数据方面，德国3月份生产者价格同比下降2.9%，这是八个月来最慢的降幅。

Frankfurt's DAX 40 index managed to recover some of its early losses, trading 0.5% lower at 17,750 points on Friday afternoon, still lingering around an over six-week low, as concerns regarding a potential escalation in Middle East tensions began to ease, particularly following Iran's apparent downplaying of the suspected Israeli attack. Meanwhile, markets digested more hawkish remarks from Federal Reserve officials. New York Fed President John Williams emphasized that there is no urgency to decrease interest rates, while his colleague Raphael Bostic suggested that policy easing is unlikely until the end of the year. Neel Kashkari also said that policymakers could potentially maintain rates at their current levels throughout the year. On the economic data front, German producer prices experienced a 2.9% year-on-year decline in March, marking the slowest decrease in eight months.

欧洲股市周五下午收复失地，STOXX 50指数下跌0.4%，但仍徘徊在3月6日以来的最低水平附近，因为在伊朗明显淡化以色列袭击嫌疑后，对中东更广泛冲突的担忧消退。与此同时，投资者关注的焦点转移到美联储官员的最新言论和另一轮企业更新上。纽约联储主席威廉姆斯强调，美国央行不会急于降息，而他的同事博斯蒂克则表示，在年底之前不太可能放松政策。在企业方面，欧莱雅报告称，第一季度销售额同比增长9.4%，而索迪斯表示，预计2024年的有机收入增长将达到6-8%的最高水平。此外，博彩公司888公布的第一季度收入好于预期。

European shares trimmed early losses Friday afternoon, with the STOXX 50 trading 0.4% lower but still hovering near its lowest level since March 6th, as concerns about a broader conflict in the Middle East subsided following Iran's apparent downplaying of the suspected Israeli attack. Meanwhile, investor focus shifted to the latest remarks by Fed officials and another round of corporate updates. NY Fed President Williams underscored that the US central bank is not rushing to reduce interest rates, while his colleague Bostic suggested that policy easing is unlikely until the end of the year. On the corporate front, L'Oreal reported a 9.4% rise in Q1 sales on a like-for-like basis, while Sodexo stated that it expects organic revenue growth for 2024 to be at the top of its 6-8% range. Additionally, Bookmaker 888 announced better-than-expected Q1 revenues.

欧元稳定在1.065美元左右，徘徊在五个月来的最低点附近，这要归功于欧洲央行与美联储的做法形成鲜明对比的鸽派立场，以及在担心中东紧张局势可能升级的情况下，投资者情绪倾向于更安全的货币。欧洲央行政策制定者的声明暗示，他们最早准备在6月开始降低借贷成本，市场参与者现在预计到2024年底将总共降息三次。相反，美联储官员表示，美国央行并不急于降息，理由是持续的高通胀和经济韧性的迹象。

The euro steadied around $1.065, hovering near its lowest point in five months, thanks to the European Central Bank's dovish stance in contrast to the Federal Reserve's approach and as investor sentiment favored safer currencies amid concerns regarding potential Middle East tensions escalation. ECB policymakers' statements hinted at a readiness to commence reducing borrowing costs as early as June, with market participants now foreseeing a total of three rate cuts by the end of 2024. Conversely, Federal Reserve officials conveyed that the US central bank is not eager to decrease interest rates, citing persistently high inflation and indications of economic resilience.