美元/日元 (USDJPY) 加自选

房地美的数据显示，截至4月25日，30年期固定抵押贷款的平均利率飙升至7.17%，比前一周上升7个基点，达到11月以来的最高水平。这一增长与长期国债收益率的大幅上升相一致，人们越来越期待美联储采取更强硬的立场。去年同期，30年期固定抵押贷款的平均利率为6.43%。房地美首席经济学家Sam Khater表示：“抵押贷款利率本周继续上升。”。“尽管利率自年初以来攀升了0.5%以上，但购房需求仍然强劲。随着利率预计将在很长一段时间内保持高位，许多购房者正在适应，本周报告的新建房屋销售额大幅增长就是明证，这是自2022年12月以来的最大增幅。”

The average rate for a 30-year fixed mortgage surged to 7.17% as of April 25th, rising 7 basis points from the previous week to its highest level since November, according to data from Freddie Mac. This increase aligns with the sharp rise in long-dated Treasury yields amid growing expectations for a more hawkish stance from the Federal Reserve. In the same period last year, the average rate for a 30-year fixed mortgage was 6.43%. "Mortgage rates continued their ascent this week," stated Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s Chief Economist. "Despite rates climbing more than half a percent since the start of the year, demand for home purchases remains robust. With rates expected to stay elevated for an extended period, many homebuyers are adapting, as evidenced by the significant increase in sales of newly built homes reported this week, marking the largest rise since December 2022."

堪萨斯城联储的制造业生产指数从3月的-9降至2024年4月的-13，这表明活动显著下降。此外，平均产量、新订单、就业、供应商交货时间和原材料库存指数的综合指数从-7降至-8。耐用和非耐用商品的工厂活动都有所下降，除持平价格指数和新出口订单外，大多数月度指数均为负值。生产、发货、供应商交货时间和材料库存减少，而新订单和积压有所减少。就业和工作周指数基本保持不变。工厂活动同比下降至-12，生产和就业也在下降。然而，未来综合指数从4月份的1略有改善至2，这是由于产量增加，但被原材料库存减少所抵消。

The Kansas City Fed's Manufacturing Production index fell to -13 in April 2024 from March's -9, signaling a notable decline in activity. Additionally, the composite index, averaging production, new orders, employment, supplier delivery time, and raw materials inventory indexes, dropped to -8 from -7. Factory activity decreased in both durable and nondurable goods, with most monthly indexes negative, except for flat price indexes and new export orders. Production, shipments, supplier delivery time, and material inventories decreased, while new orders and backlogs moderated. Employment and workweek indexes remained essentially unchanged. Year-over-year factory activity decreased to -12, with production and employment also declining. However, the future composite index improved slightly to 2 from 1 in April, driven by higher production but offset by lower raw materials inventory.

周四，随着交易员消化最新经济数据及其对美联储计划的意义，美元指数回吐早盘涨幅，交易在105.7左右几乎没有变化。2024年第一季度，美国经济年化增长1.6%，远低于2.5%的预测，也是近两年来的最低增长率，但价格压力加剧，核心PCE价格指数增长3.7%，高于预期。与此同时，首次申请失业救济人数意外下降，这继续表明劳动力市场紧张，待售房屋销售意外上升。这些数据强化了美联储短期内不会降息的观点，同时对“软着陆”的乐观情绪减弱。美元兑欧元和英镑大多较低，但由于投资者等待日本央行的政策信号，美元兑日元创下34年新高。

The dollar index cut early gains to trade little changed around 105.7 on Thursday, as traders digest the latest economic data and what it means for the Fed's plans. The US economy expanded an annualized 1.6% in Q1 2024, well below forecasts of 2.5% and the lowest growth in about two years, but price price pressures intensified, with the core PCE price index increasing by 3.7%, above expectations. At the same time, initial claims unexpectedly fell, continuing to point to a tight labour market and pending home sales surprised on the upside. The data reinforced the view the Fed will not cut interest rates anytime soon, while optimism for a “soft landing” diminished. The greenback was mostly lower against the Euro and the pound but scaled new 34-year highs versus the Japanese yen as investors await policy signals from the Bank of Japan.

在截至2024年4月19日的一周内，美国公用事业公司增加了920亿立方英尺的天然气储量，这是六个月来的最大增幅，而市场预计将增加870亿立方英尺。股票目前为2425 Bcf，比去年同期高439 Bcf，比五年平均水平1770 Bcf高655 Bcf。

US utilities added 92 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas into storage during the week ended April 19th 2024, the biggest rise in six months, compared with market expectations of an 87 bcf increase. Stocks are now at 2,425 Bcf, 439 Bcf higher than last year at this time and 655 Bcf above the five-year average of 1,770 Bcf.