美元/人民币 (USDCNY) 加自选

美国股票期货周四下跌，随着公司业绩的公布，标准普尔500指数合约下跌0.8%，道琼斯指数下跌约220点，纳斯达克100指数下跌1.1%。Meta公司发布第二季度疲软的收入指导后，股价在开盘前下跌约15%，超过了好于预期的第一季度业绩。IBM股价也下跌了近9%，此前该公司营收下滑，并确认了收购HashiCorp的计划。另一方面，霍尼韦尔国际在上市前交易中上涨约2%，此前该公司的盈利超过了预期，该公司的航空航天特许经营权领涨。默克公司股价上涨超过2%，其盈利超过预期，美国航空公司股价飙升5.6%，此前该公司对本季度提供了乐观的指导。微软、Alphabet和T-Mobile定于今天收盘后公布季度业绩。在数据方面，交易员将遵循对美国GDP增长和首次索赔的首次估计。

Stock futures in the US were lower on Thursday, with contracts on the S&P 500 losing 0.8%, the Dow Jones declining about 220 points, and the Nasdaq 100 sinking 1.1%, as corporate results roll in. Shares of Meta sank about 15% before the opening bell after the company issued a weak revenue guidance for the second quarter, which outweighed better-than-expected first quarter results. IBM also declined almost 9% after a revenue miss and the confirmation of its plans to acquire HashiCorp. On the other hand, Honeywell International gained about 2% in premarket trading after the company's earnings beat forecasts, led by the company’s aerospace franchise. Merck was up over 2% as its earnings topped estimates and American Airlines soared 5.6% after offering upbeat guidance for the current quarter. Microsoft, Alphabet and T-Mobile are due to report their quarterly results today after the closing bell. On the data front, traders will follow the first estimate for US GDP growth and initial claims.

2024年第一季度，美国经济可能以2.5%的年化增长率增长，这标志着美国经济连续第二个季度从前三个月的3.4%增长放缓。尽管有这种放缓，但经济分析局的初步估计预计将突显美国经济的韧性，尽管借贷成本仍然很高，通胀压力持续存在，但在强劲的生产力水平、强劲的就业和旺盛的国内需求的情况下。根据亚特兰大联储GDPNow估计，消费者支出和国内私人投资的增长率约为3%，而住宅投资可能以两位数的速度增长。然而，净贸易可能对总体增长数字产生了负面影响。

The US economy likely expanded at an annualized rate of 2.5% in the first quarter of 2024, marking a slowdown for the second consecutive quarter from the 3.4% growth seen in the previous three months. Despite this moderation, the initial estimate from the Bureau of Economic Analysis is expected to highlight the resilience of the US economy, amid strong productivity levels, robust employment, and buoyant domestic demand, even as borrowing costs remain high and inflationary pressures persist. Growth in consumer spending and private domestic investment is seen around 3% while residential investment likely expanded at a double digit pace, according to the Atlanta Fed GDPNow Estimate. However, net trade probably have made a negative contribution to the overall growth figures.

美元指数周四下跌至105.8左右，因投资者避免在美国第一季度GDP数据可能影响美联储货币政策前景之前下大赌注。市场还期待着周五的PCE价格指数报告，这是美联储首选的通胀指标，以获得更多关于价格趋势的见解。最近的数据显示，3月份美国耐用品订单超出预期，而标普数据显示，美国私营部门上月的增长开始放缓。交易员们现在已经减少了对美联储今年降息的押注，但仍将9月视为宽松周期的潜在开始。美元兑大多数主要货币最近都有所下跌。与此同时，由于投资者等待日本央行的政策信号，日元兑日元汇率创下34年新高。

The dollar index was subdued around 105.8 on Thursday as investors avoided making big bets ahead of US GDP data for the first quarter that could influence the outlook for Federal Reserve monetary policy. Markets also look forward to the PCE price index report on Friday, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, to gain more insights on price trends. Recent data showed that US durable goods orders exceeded expectations in March, while S&P data indicated that US private sector growth is beginning to slow down last month. Traders have now scaled back bets on Fed rate cuts this year, but still see September as the potential start of the easing cycle. The dollar held recent declines against most major currencies. Meanwhile, it scaled new 34-year highs versus the Japanese yen as investors await policy signals from the Bank of Japan.

周四，上证综指上涨0.1%，收于3048点左右，深证成分股上涨0.6%，收于9307点。随着中国市场情绪和宏观前景的改善，内地股市连续第二个交易日攀升。瑞银（UBS）分析师周二将摩根士丹利资本国际（MSCI）中国股票评级上调至“增持”，称外国投资者将通过沪港通逐步重返中国市场。在数据方面，投资者期待下周公布的最新PMI数据，以获得对这个世界第二大经济体的新见解。科技和消费相关股领涨，鲁讯精密（5%）、成都高新（4.2%）和四川九州（3.6%）领涨。在企业新闻方面，长城汽车股价上涨8.4%，此前第一季度净利润同比增长1752.6%，达到32亿元，收入增长47.6%，达到428.6亿元。

The Shanghai Composite rose 0.1% to around 3,048 while the Shenzhen Component gained 0.6% to 9,307 on Thursday, with mainland stocks climbing for the second straight session amid an improving market sentiment and macro outlook in China. UBS analysts upgraded MSCI China equities to “overweight” on Tuesday, saying foreign investors will gradually return to China’s market via the Stock Connect. On the data front, investors look forward to the latest PMI figures due next week for fresh insights on the world’s second-largest economy. Technology and consumer-related stocks led the advance, with gains from Luxshare Precision (5%), Chengdu Hi-Tech (4.2%) and Sichuan Jiuzhou (3.6%). In corporate news, Great Wall Motor rallied 8.4% after posting a 1,752.6% surge in Q1 net profit from a year ago to 3.2 billion yuan, with revenue up 47.6% to 42.86 billion yuan.