欧洲股市周一小幅下跌，投资者在降息希望推动的近期飙升后稍作喘息，这已将欧洲主要股指推至四个月来的最高点。STOXX 50和STOXX 600均下跌约0.3%，在石油和铜价下跌的情况下，矿业股领跌。与此同时，投资者预计周五的美国就业数据将进一步深入了解美联储来年的政策轨迹。在企业发展方面，制药巨头罗氏宣布以27亿美元收购Carmot Therapeutics的最终协议。此外，英国-瑞典制药商阿斯利康与美国人工智能（AI）生物制品公司Absci达成了一项价值高达2.47亿美元的协议，将合作设计一种旨在对抗癌症的抗体。

European shares were slightly down on Monday, as investors paused for breath following the recent surge propelled by hopes of rate cuts, which had driven the major European index to its highest point in four months. Both the STOXX 50 and STOXX 600 dipped approximately 0.3%, with miners leading the losses amidst decreased oil and copper prices. Meanwhile, investors are anticipating Friday's US payrolls data to glean further insights into the Federal Reserve's policy trajectory for the upcoming year. In corporate developments, pharmaceutical giant Roche announced a definitive agreement to acquire Carmot Therapeutics for $2.7 billion. Additionally, Anglo-Swedish drugmaker AstraZeneca has struck a deal valued at up to $247 million with US-based artificial intelligence (AI) biologics firm Absci to collaborate on designing an antibody aimed at combating cancer.

2023年10月，德国贸易顺差从上月的167亿欧元小幅修正后增至178亿欧元，超过市场预期的171亿欧元。这是自6月份以来最大的贸易顺差，因为进口下降幅度大于出口。购买量下降1.2%，至1086亿欧元，为2021年11月以来的最低水平，未达到0.8%的普遍预期。来自欧盟国家的进口下降了2.8%，而来自非欧盟国家的出口增长了0.8%，即美国（2.2%）和俄罗斯（6.6%）。相比之下，来自中国（-2.4%）和英国（-15.1%）的进口有所下降。与此同时，销售额小幅下降0.2%，至1264亿欧元，为2022年3月以来的最低值，而预计增长1.1%。对欧盟国家的出口下降了2.7%，但对欧盟以外的国家，即美国（5.7%）、中国（1.5%）和英国（5.6%）的出口增长了2.9%。然而，俄罗斯的出口却下降了5.0%。

The trade surplus in Germany increased to EUR 17.8 billion in October 2023 from a marginally revised EUR 16.7 billion in the previous month, exceeding market expectations of EUR 17.1 billion. It was the largest trade surplus since June, as imports fell more sharply than exports. Purchases fell by 1.2% to EUR 108.6 billion, the lowest since November 2021, missing consensus of a 0.8% rise. Imports from EU countries declined by 2.8% while those from non-EU countries grew by 0.8%, namely the US (2.2%) and Russia (6.6%). By contrast, they decreased from China (-2.4%) and the UK (-15.1%). Meantime, sales edged down 0.2% to EUR 126.4 billion, the lowest value since March 2022, compared with estimates of a 1.1% rise. Exports dropped by 2.7% to the EU countries but expanded 2.9% to countries outside the EU, namely the US (5.7%), China (1.5%), and the UK (5.6%). However, exports from Russia declined by 5.0%.

由于投资者等待本周更多数据来进一步指导经济和货币政策前景，欧洲股市周一将小幅开盘。欧元区第三季度GDP数据将于周四公布，而生产者通胀和零售销售数据也将于本周公布。与此同时，美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔周五表示，当前的货币环境“已进入限制范围”，但警告称，预计政策宽松“为时过早”。欧洲斯托克50指数期货在盘前交易中持平，而富时100指数期货下跌0.3%。

European equity markets were set for a muted open on Monday as investors awaited more data this week to guide the economic and monetary policy outlook further. Eurozone third quarter GDP data will be released on Thursday, while producer inflation and retail sales figures are also on deck this week. Meanwhile, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said on Friday that current monetary settings were “well into restrictive territory,” but warned that it is “premature” to anticipate policy easing. Euro Stoxx 50 futures were flat in premarket trade, while FTSE 100 futures fell 0.3%.

澳大利亚10年期政府债券收益率保持在4.5%以下，徘徊在接近两个月来的最低水平，并追随美国债券收益率最近的疲软，因为美国政策制定者的鸽派言论强化了人们对美联储已完成加息并可能在明年开始宽松的押注。在国内，投资者为澳大利亚储备银行的政策决定做好了准备，预计该银行将在分析之前加息对经济的影响的同时保持利率稳定。与此同时，最新数据显示，澳大利亚11月的月度通胀指标三个月来首次转正，而10月的住房贷款增长超过预期。

Australia’s 10-year government bond yield held below 4.5%, hovering close to its lowest levels in two months and tracking recent weakness in US bond yields as dovish remarks from US policymakers reinforced bets that the Federal Reserve is done raising interest rates and could start easing next year. Domestically, investors braced for the Reserve Bank of Australia’s policy decision, where it is expected to hold interest rates steady while analyzing the impact of previous hikes on the economy. Meanwhile, latest data showed that a monthly inflation gauge in Australia turned positive in November for the first time in three months, while housing loans rose more than expected in October.

日本10年期政府债券收益率保持在0.7%以下，徘徊在约三个月来的最低水平附近，并追随美国债券收益率最近的疲软，因为美国决策者的鸽派言论强化了人们对美联储已经完成加息并可能在明年开始宽松的押注。在国内，日本银行董事会成员野口朝日周末表示，由于最近成本推动的通货膨胀上升，日本尚未实现由工资上涨推动的物价增长。他表示，现在考虑退出超宽松货币政策还为时过早，这反映了日本央行其他官员的类似观点。投资者现在展望本周东京的通胀数据，该数据被认为是全国物价趋势的领先指标。日本央行在10月的政策会议上重申了其对宽松货币政策的承诺，并仅对收益率曲线控制进行了小幅调整。

Japan’s 10-year government bond yield held below 0.7%, hovering near its lowest levels in about three months and tracking recent weakness in US bond yields as dovish remarks from US policymakers reinforced bets that the Federal Reserve is done raising interest rates and could start easing next year. Domestically, Bank of Japan board member Asahi Noguchi said over the weekend that Japan has yet to achieve price growth driven by higher wages with the recent cost-push driven rise in inflation. He suggested that it was premature to consider exiting ultra-loose monetary policy, reflecting similar views from other BOJ officials. Investors now look ahead to Tokyo inflation data this week, which is considered as a leading indicator of nationwide price trends. The BOJ reaffirmed its commitment to accommodative monetary policies during its October policy meeting and made only minor adjustments to yield curve controls.

在东京，日经225指数周一下跌298点，跌幅为0.89%。铃木汽车（-3.70%）、万代南科控股（-3.64%）和电装（-3.60%）领跌。涨幅最大的是瑞信（3.82%）、趋势科技（3.76%）和川崎基森（3.27%）。

In Tokyo, the Nikkei 225 Index decreased 298 points or 0.89 percent on Monday. Losses were driven by Suzuki Motor (-3.70%), Bandai Namco Holdings (-3.64%) and Denso (-3.60%). Biggest rises came from Credit Saison (3.82%), Trend Micro (3.76%) and Kawasaki Kisen (3.27%).

离岸人民币兑美元汇率跌至7.15，远离五个多月高点，投资者谨慎等待本周的关键经济数据，以进一步引导前景。中国将于周二公布服务业活动数据，周四公布贸易数据，周六公布最新通胀报告。市场还期待着政治局会议和一年一度的中央经济工作会议，预计中国当局将在会上讨论政策计划并设定2024年的经济目标。上周，一项私人调查显示，中国11月制造业活动意外扩张，与前一天的官方数据相矛盾，该数据表明中国制造业活动连续第二个月萎缩。尽管如此，由于人们越来越相信美联储明年可能开始放松政策，人民币仍保持在较高水平。

The offshore yuan weakened toward 7.15 per dollar, moving away from over five-month highs as investors cautiously awaited key economic data this week to guide the outlook further. China will release services activity data on Tuesday, trade figures on Thursday and the latest inflation report on Saturday. Markets also look ahead to a Politburo meeting and the annual Central Economic Work Conference where Chinese authorities are expected to discuss policy plans and set economic targets for 2024. Last week, a private survey showed that Chinese manufacturing activity unexpectedly expanded in November, contradicting official data from a day earlier pointing to the second straight month of contraction. Still, the yuan remained at elevated levels amid growing bets that the US Federal Reserve will likely start easing policy next year.

日元兑美元升值超过147，徘徊在12周来的最高水平，人们越来越期待美联储结束当前的货币紧缩周期，并可能在明年开始降息。与此同时，日本银行董事会成员野口朝日周末表示，由于最近成本推动的通货膨胀上升，日本尚未实现由工资上涨推动的物价增长。他表示，现在考虑退出超宽松货币政策还为时过早，这反映了日本央行其他官员的类似观点。投资者现在展望本周东京的通胀数据，该数据被认为是全国物价趋势的领先指标。日本央行在10月的政策会议上重申了其对宽松货币政策的承诺，只对收益率曲线控制进行了小幅调整。

The Japanese yen appreciated past 147 per dollar, hovering at its highest levels in 12 weeks amid growing expectations that the US Federal Reserve is done with its current monetary tightening cycle and will likely start cutting interest rates next year. Meanwhile, Bank of Japan board member Asahi Noguchi said over the weekend that Japan has yet to achieve price growth driven by higher wages with the recent cost-push driven rise in inflation. He suggested that it was premature to consider exiting ultra-loose monetary policy, reflecting similar views from other BOJ officials. Investors now look ahead to Tokyo inflation data this week, which is considered as a leading indicator of nationwide price trends. The BOJ reaffirmed its commitment to accommodative monetary policies during its October policy meeting and only made minor adjustments to yield curve controls.

周一，新西兰元50指数收平至11367.8点，此前两个交易日收盘走高，交易员们为本周公布的美国非农就业数据、中国通胀和澳大利亚GDP增长等有关全球经济状况的更多线索做好了准备。在国内，新西兰储备银行上周连续第四次将现金利率保持在5.5%不变，但由于核心通胀率上升，仍保持鹰派倾向。另外，上周的数据显示，随着10月的选举顺利进行，惠灵顿的新政府已经开始工作，新西兰的消费者情绪上个月达到21个月的峰值，商业情绪跃升至近9年来的最高点。与此同时，美联储主席鲍威尔周五提醒政策制定者不急于降息后，美股合约大多走低。科技服务业、能源矿产和金融业表现为绿色，而工业、耐用消费品和工业股下跌。

The NZX 50 ended flat at 11,367.8 on Monday after closing higher in the previous two sessions, as traders braced for more clues about global economic conditions with US non-farm payrolls data, Chinese inflation, and Australian GDP growth all due this week. At home, the RBNZ last week left cash rates unchanged at 5.5% for the fourth straight gathering but maintained its hawkish bias due to elevated core inflation. Separately, figures from last week showed that consumer mood in New Zealand reached a 21-month peak last month and business sentiment jumped to its highest in nearly 9 years, as October's election ran smoothly and a new government in Wellington already started its job. Meantime, contracts for US shares were mostly lower following a reminder from Fed Chair Powell Friday that policymakers were in no hurry to cut interest rates. Tech services, energy minerals, and financials finished in the green while industrials, consumer durables, and industrials retreated.

澳元跌至0.665美元左右，从四个月高点小幅回落，因投资者为澳大利亚储备银行的政策决定做好准备，预计该银行将在分析之前加息对经济的影响的同时保持利率稳定。尽管如此，澳元仍处于高位，因为最新数据显示，澳大利亚11月的月度通胀指标三个月来首次转正，而10月的住房贷款增长超过预期。澳大利亚储备银行行长Michele Bullock此前也警告称，国内需求对通胀的贡献越来越大，需要利率做出“实质性”反应。市场现在认为，央行明年再次加息的可能性约为50%。从外部来看，对美联储明年可能开始放松政策的押注不断增加，也提振了澳元。

The Australian dollar slipped to around $0.665, retreating slightly from four-month highs as investors braced for the Reserve Bank of Australia’s policy decision, where it is expected to hold interest rates steady while analyzing the impact of previous hikes on the economy. Still, the aussie remained at elevated levels as latest data showed that a monthly inflation gauge in Australia turned positive in November for the first time in three months, while housing loans rose more than expected in October. RBA Governor Michele Bullock also previously warned that domestic demand has been contributing increasingly to inflation, requiring a “substantial” response from interest rates. Markets now see around a 50% chance that the central bank would hike rates again next year. Externally, growing bets that the US Federal Reserve will likely start easing policy next year provided a boost to the aussie as well.

2023年1月至10月，法国政府预算赤字从上年同期的1432亿欧元扩大至1777亿欧元。总支出同比增长2.4%，达到4349亿欧元，而收入下降3.9%，达到2703亿欧元。此外，追踪目标收入和支出（如地方政府收入）流入和流出余额的财政部特别账户出现131.3亿欧元的缺口，而去年同期为5亿欧元的盈余。

France's government budget deficit widened to EUR 177.7 billion in January to October 2023, from EUR 143.2 billion in the corresponding period of the previous year. Total expenditures rose by 2.4 percent from a year earlier to EUR 434.9 billion, while revenues dropped by 3.9 percent to EUR 270.3 billion. Furthermore, the Treasury special accounts, which track the balance of inflows and outflows of targeted revenues and outlays, for example receipts from local government, posted a EUR 13.13 billion shortfall, compared to a EUR 0.5 billion surplus in the same period last year.

美元指数周一稳定在103以上，投资者继续评估美联储货币政策前景。周五，美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔表示，当前的货币环境“已进入限制范围”，经济如预期放缓，美元下跌了一些。尽管如此，他还是反对对利率的鸽派押注，并警告称，预计政策宽松“为时过早”。在数据方面，美国11月ISM制造业PMI低于预期，表明工厂活动连续第13次收缩，并支持疲软的利率前景。此外，最新的美国PCE通胀数据表明价格放缓，同时持续申请失业救济人数创下两年新高。投资者现在期待本周11月的就业报告，以衡量劳动力市场的实力。

The dollar index steadied above 103 on Monday as investors continued to assess the outlook for Federal Reserve monetary policy. On Friday, the greenback lost some ground after Fed Chair Jerome Powell said that current monetary settings were “well into restrictive territory” and slowing the economy as expected. Still, he pushed back against dovish bets on interest rates, warning that it is “premature” to anticipate policy easing. On the data front, the US ISM Manufacturing PMI came in below estimates in November, pointing to the 13th consecutive contraction in the factory activity and supporting the softer rate outlook. Additionally, the latest US PCE inflation reading indicated a slowdown in prices, while continuing jobless claims reached a two-year high. Investors now look ahead to the November jobs report this week to gauge the strength of the labor market.

周一早盘交易中，BSE Sensex指数飙升978.3点，涨幅1.4%，创下68459.5点的历史新高，受州选举结果的提振，政治稳定的可能性很高，印度人民党赢得了四个州议会选举中的三个州。该指数连续第五个交易日上涨，此前华尔街周五出现反弹，在美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔发表评论后，人们越来越相信美联储的紧缩周期已经结束。强劲的经济增长超过预期，外国资本流入增加，油价和国债收益率下降，提振了积极情绪。2023年第三季度，印度国内生产总值同比增长7.6%，超过了6.8%的增长预测，快于印度储备银行6.5%的预测。几乎所有行业都在绿色交易，阿达尼企业（6.2%）、阿达尼港口（4.8%）、Larsen&Toubro（3.0%）和ICICI银行3.0%的涨幅显著。与此同时，印度石油天然气公司在政府大幅削减原油和喷气燃料暴利税后上涨2.2%。

The BSE Sensex surged 978.3 points or 1.4% to a new record peak of 68,459.5 in morning deals on Monday, buoyed by the outcome of state elections indicating a high possibility of political stability, with BJP winning three states out of four state assembly elections. The index advanced for the fifth consecutive session following a rally on Wall Street Friday amid growing bets that the Fed's tightening cycle is over after comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell. Strong economic growth more than expected, rising foreign capital inflow, and easing oil prices and Treasury yields fueled positive sentiment. The Indian GDP grew 7.6% yoy in Q3 of 2023, exceeding forecasts of a 6.8% rise, faster than the RBI projection of 6.5%. Almost all sectors were trading in the green, amid notable rises from Adani Enterprises (6.2%), Adani Ports (4.8%), Larsen & Toubro (3.0%), and ICICI Bank 3.0%). Meanwhile, ONGC rose 2.2% after the government slashed windfall tax on crude petroleum and jet fuel.

SENSEX指数升至68435点的历史最高点

SENSEX increased to an all-time high of 68435

周一，上证综指下跌0.2%，收于3025点左右，深证成分股下跌0.15%，收于9706点，延续了上周的跌幅，因为市场缺乏新的催化剂，情绪疲软。与此同时，投资者期待周二的中国服务业活动数据、周四的贸易数据和周六的最新通胀报告，以指导经济和货币政策前景。跌幅显著的是重量级公司，如当代安培（-1.6%）、药明康德（-5.3%）、欧菲光集团（-1%）、贵州茅台（-0.5%）、永达科技（-5.5%）和浙江金科（-2%）。抵消亏损，重庆长安（2.2%）、昆仑科技（2.9%）和安徽江淮（5.3%）强劲上涨。

The Shanghai Composite fell 0.2% to around 3,025 while the Shenzhen Component lost 0.15% to 9,706 on Monday, extending losses from last week as weak sentiment pervaded markets amid a lack of fresh catalysts. Meanwhile, investors look ahead to Chinese services activity data on Tuesday, trade figures on Thursday and the latest inflation report on Saturday to guide the economic and monetary policy outlook. Notable losses were seen from heavyweight firms such as Contemporary Amperex (-1.6%), Wuxi Apptec (-5.3%), OFILM Group (-1%), Kweichow Moutai (-0.5%), Wingtech Technology (-5.5%) and Zhejiang Jinke (-2%). Offsetting the losses, strong gains were seen from ChongQing Changan (2.2%), Kunlun Tech (2.9%) and Anhui Jianghuai (5.3%).