孟买孟买敏感指数周二下跌386点，跌幅0.53%。领跌的是Infosys（-3.51%）、Ltimintree Ltd（-3.03%）和Indind Bank（-2.99%）。涨幅居前的是印度斯坦联合利华（1.57%）、泰坦公司（1.33%）和HDFC银行（1.31%）。

In Mumbai, the SENSEX Index fell 386 points or 0.53 percent on Tuesday. Leading the losses are Infosys (-3.51%), Ltimindtree Ltd (-3.03%) and Indusind Bank (-2.99%). Top gainers were Hindustan Unilever (1.57%), Titan Company (1.33%) and HDFC Bank (1.31%).

2024年4月，韩元兑美元汇率跌至1400韩元，自本月最高点以来下跌3.5%，跌至2022年10月以来的最低水平，这与其他亚洲货币的压力相一致，因为中国经济前景疲软和对美联储的鹰派押注引发了整个大陆的美元大幅买入。这一下滑促使韩国当局罕见地发出警告，称外汇市场的失衡需要央行的审查，这可能为未来的干预奠定了基础。韩国央行定期干预货币市场，以防止韩元出现不必要的波动，但中国日益疲软的每日参考利率限制了其他亚洲经济体的反应空间，因为人民币大幅升值阻碍了韩国商品和服务在外国市场的竞争力。

The South Korean won slipped to 1,400 per USD in April of 2024, tanking 3.5% since its highest point in the month to trade at its lowest since October 2022, tracking the pressure in other Asian currencies as a weak outlook for the Chinese economy and hawkish bets for the Federal Reserve triggered sharp dollar buying across the continent. The slide drove South Korean authorities to issue a rare warning that imbalances in the foreign exchange markets require the central bank’s scrutiny, possibly setting the stage for future intervention. The Bank of Korea regularly intervenes in currency markets to prevent undesirable volatility in the won, but China’s increasingly weak daily reference rates limit the room for response for other Asian economies, as a sharp appreciation against the yuan hampers the competitiveness of Korean goods and services in foreign markets.

加拿大10年期政府债券收益率升至22周高点3.82%。过去4周，加拿大10Y债券收益率上涨17.60个基点，过去12个月上涨67.20个基点。

Canada 10 Year Government Bond Yield increased to a 22-week high of 3.82%. Over the past 4 weeks, Canada 10Y Bond Yield gained 17.60 basis points, and in the last 12 months, it increased 67.20 basis points.

意大利2024年2月的贸易顺差为60.34亿欧元，大大高于市场预期的34.4亿欧元。余额比上年同期的20.95亿欧元盈余增加了近三倍，因为自俄罗斯入侵乌克兰以来，意大利经济的关键商品价格已经回落，限制了外国采购的营业额。进口额较上年下降6.1%，至472.96亿欧元，天然气价格下跌导致其采购额下降49.2%，而原油价格的放缓使进口额下降6.4%。电脑和电子产品（-10.4%）以及机械（-5.9%）的进口也有所下降。另一方面，受食品、饮料和烟草（11.4%）、运输设备（28.6%）和制造设备（14.9%）销售强劲的支撑，出口小幅增长1.7%，至533.3亿欧元。

Italy posted a trade surplus of EUR 6.034 billion in February of 2024, sharply above market expectations of EUR 3.44 billion. The balance was a near three-fold increase from the surplus of EUR 2.095 billion from the corresponding period of the previous year, as prices for key commodities for the Italian economy have retreated since the start of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, limiting turnover in foreign purchases. Imports slumped by 6.1% from the previous year to EUR 47.296 billion, with lower natural gas prices driving their purchasing turnover to slump by 49.2%, while a moderation in crude oil prices lowered imports by 6.4%. Imports also fell for computers and electronic products (-10.4%) and machinery (-5.9%). On the other hand, exports edged higher by 1.7% to EUR 53.33 billion, supported by stronger sales for food, beverages, and tobacco (11.4%), transportation equipment (28.6%), and manufacturing equipment (14.9%).

2024年2月，欧元区贸易顺差从去年同期的36亿欧元大幅扩大至236亿欧元，为2020年12月以来的最大值。进口下滑8.4%，至2114亿欧元，反映出各种类别的采购量下降，尤其是矿物燃料、润滑油和相关产品（-21.7%）；原材料（-20.4%）；原材料（-18.3%）；机械和运输设备（-7.9%）；以及制成品（-7.2%）。进口减少的主要来自中国、英国、俄罗斯和挪威。与此同时，受原材料出货量（+3.4%）的推动，出口同比增长0.3%，达到2350亿欧元；食品、饮料和烟草（+3.1%）；杂项制成品（+2.6%）和原材料（+2.4%）。在主要贸易伙伴中，出口主要增加到美国、英国和挪威，但下降到俄罗斯和中国。

The Eurozone trade surplus widened significantly to €23.6 billion in February 2024, the largest since December 2020, from €3.6 billion in the same period last year. Imports slipped by 8.4% to €211.4 billion, reflecting a decline in acquisitions across a wide range of categories, particularly mineral fuels, lubricants and related (-21.7%); crude materials (-20.4%); raw materials (-18.3%); machinery and transport equipment (-7.9%); and manufactured goods (-7.2%). Imports decreased primarily from China, the UK, Russia and Norway. Meanwhile, exports rose 0.3% year-on-year to €235 billion, driven by shipments of raw materials (+3.4%); food, drinks and tobacco (+3.1%); miscellaneous manufactured articles (+2.6%) and crude materials (+2.4%). Among key trading partners, exports increased mainly to the US, UK and Norway, but dropped to Russia and China.

2024年4月，欧元区ZEW经济情绪指数上涨10.4点，至43.9点，为2022年2月以来的最高值，高于市场预期的37.2点。4月份，45.1%的受访分析师预计经济活动不会发生变化，49.4%的分析师预计会有所改善，5.5%的分析师预计经济会恶化。与此同时，通胀预期上升15.2个百分点，至-49.1，当前经济形势指标上升6个百分点，达到-48.8。

The ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment for the Euro Area rose by 10.4 points to 43.9 in April 2024, the highest since February 2022 and above market expectations of 37.2. In April, 45.1 percent of the surveyed analysts expected no changes in economic activity, 49.4 percent expected improvement and 5.5 percent predicted a deterioration. In the meantime, inflation expectations went up by 15.2 points to -49.1 and the indicator of the current economic situation increased by 6 points to -48.8.

德国ZEW经济情绪指标从3月份的31.7上升到2024年4月的42.9，为2022年2月以来的最高值，超过了预测的35.9。一半的受访分析师预计，受对经济形势的更有利评估和对主要出口目的地的预期以及美元和欧元走强的推动，德国经济将在未来六个月有所改善。与此同时，对德国经济形势的评估仍处于非常低的水平，相应的指标仅上升1.3个百分点，达到-79.2。

The ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment for Germany went up to 42.9 in April 2024, the highest since February 2022, from 31.7 in March, beating forecasts of 35.9. Half of the analysts surveyed expect the German economy to improve in the next six months, driven by a more favourable assessment of the economic situation and expectations for top export destinations, as well as the strengthening of the dollar and euro. Meanwhile, the assessment of the economic situation in Germany remained at a very low level, with the corresponding indicator increasing by just 1.3 points to -79.2.

香港10年期政府债券收益率升至3.95%的20周高点。过去4周，香港10Y债券收益率上涨2.50个基点，最近12个月上涨82.10个基点。

HK 10 Year Government Bond Yield increased to a 20-week high of 3.95%. Over the past 4 weeks, Hong Kong 10Y Bond Yield gained 2.50 basis points, and in the last 12 months, it increased 82.10 basis points.

周二，富时MIB指数下跌1.7%，徘徊在33350点附近，创下5周新低，全世界都在等待以色列对伊朗前所未有的直接袭击做出回应。与此同时，关于美国利率“长期走高”的说法死灰复燃，市场现在预计美联储今年的降息次数将少于两次。在国内，2024年3月的通货膨胀率为1.2%，高于2月的0.8%，尽管略低于最初预测的1.3%。在整个企业格局中，所有公司的交易都处于负值区域。值得注意的是，意大利著名的金融部门受到了打击，主要贷款机构联合信贷（-2.3%）和联合圣保罗银行（-1.9%）是盘中最大的落后者。Stellantis也脱颖而出，迄今为止下跌了3%。

The FTSE MIB tumbled 1.7% to hover around the 33,350 mark on Tuesday, hitting fresh 5-week lows, as the world awaits Israel's response to Iran's unprecedented direct attack. Simultaneously, the "higher-for-longer" narrative on US interest rates resurged, with markets now expecting fewer than two rate cuts by the Fed this year. Domestically, March 2024 saw an inflation rate of 1.2%, a rise from February's 0.8%, albeit slightly below initial projections of 1.3%. Across the corporate landscape, all companies are trading in negative territory. Notably, the prominent Italian financial sector took a hit, with major lenders Unicredit (-2.3%) and Intesa Sanpaolo (-1.9%) among the session's biggest laggards. Stellantis also stood out, declining 3% thus far.

周二，CAC 40指数下跌1.4%，至7930点，创下近六周来的最低水平，这是由于投资者谨慎行事，外界猜测美联储可能会在强劲的美国零售销售数据的推动下延长目前的利率立场。市场情绪表明，需要重新评估预期，预计美联储今年将降息不到两次，因为官员们强调，由于经济的韧性，要采取有分寸的方法。几乎所有行业都受到了经济衰退的冲击，安赛乐米塔尔以近7%的跌幅领跌，其次是阿尔斯通和雷诺，分别下跌3.4%和3.1%。其他值得注意的伤亡包括Publicis、Schneider Electric、BNP Paribas、Societe Generale、STMicroelectronics、Stellantis NV和空中客车，均录得2%至3%的重大损失。

The CAC 40 dropped 1.4% to 7,930 on Tuesday, hitting its lowest levels in nearly six weeks, driven by investor caution amid speculation that the Fed may prolong its current interest rate stance, prompted by robust US retail sales data. Market sentiment suggests a re-evaluation of expectations, with fewer than two rate cuts by the Fed anticipated for the year, as officials emphasize a measured approach due to the economy's resilience. Almost all sectors bore the brunt of the downturn, with ArcelorMittal leading the descent with a drop of almost 7%, followed by Alstom and Renault, which saw declines of 3.4% and 3.1%, respectively. Other notable casualties included Publicis, Schneider Electric, BNP Paribas, Societe Generale, STMicroelectronics, Stellantis NV, and Airbus, all registering substantial losses ranging from 2% to 3%.

英国10年期政府债券收益率飙升至4.3%，为11月24日以来的最高水平，数据显示英国工资强劲增长，美国消费者支出稳健，这增强了人们的信念，即英格兰银行和美联储今年降息的意愿将低于最初预期。最新的英国就业报告显示，失业率小幅上升至4.2%，略高于4.0%的预期，而工资增长速度仅略有放缓，低于预测。交易员们现在预计今年只会降息两个25个百分点，到2024年底，银行利率预计将从目前的5.25%降至4.75%左右。上周，政策制定者梅根·格林强调，英国的降息应该保持遥远，理由是与美国相比，通胀持续的风险更大。

The UK 10-year government bond yield surged to 4.3%, its highest level since November 24th, as data indicating strong wage growth in the UK and solid consumer spending in the US bolstered the belief that both the Bank of England and the Federal Reserve would be less inclined to cut interest rates this year than initially anticipated. The latest UK jobs report unveiled a slight uptick in the unemployment rate to 4.2%, marginally exceeding expectations of 4.0%, while the pace of wage growth eased only slightly and less than forecasted. Traders now anticipate only two quarter-point cuts this year, with the Bank Rate expected to decrease to around 4.75% by the end of 2024, down from its current 5.25%. Last week, policymaker Megan Greene underscored that rate cuts in the UK should remain remote, citing a greater risk of inflation persistence compared to the US.

周二，恒生指数暴跌351.4点，跌幅2.12%，收于16248.97点的5周多低点，在周一华尔街暴跌后第四个交易日下跌，原因是中东局势日益紧张，美国强劲的零售销售数据引发了对粘性通胀和利率上升的担忧。在中国，最新经济数据显示，由于第一季度GDP数据和固定投资均超过预期，但零售额和工业产出低于预期，中国的复苏仍不均衡。与此同时，该国统计局警告称，在国外逆风加剧的情况下，稳定经济的基础仍然脆弱。所有板块都对该指数构成压力，科技股追随美国股市同行，暴跌超过3%。上个月，中国新房价格出现近9年来最大跌幅，房地产价格下跌超过1.5%。大盘股下当天最大的落后者是金沙中国（-6.0%）、李汽车（-5.0%）和小米公司（-3.8%）。快手科技（-3.4%）。

The Hang Seng plunged 351.4 points or 2.12% to end at an over 5-week low of 16,248.97 on Tuesday, withdrawing for the fourth session following a rout on Wall Street Monday due to mounting tensions in the Middle East and strong US retail sales data that stoked fears of sticky inflation and elevated interest rates. In China, the latest economic data showed the nation’s recovery stayed uneven as both Q1 GDP figures and fixed investment beat forecasts but retail sales and industrial output fell short of consensus. Meanwhile, the country's statistics agency warned that the foundation for a stable economy remained fragile amid heightened headwinds from abroad. All sectors pressured the index, with tech plunging over 3% as it tracked its peer in US stocks. Property fell over 1.5% as China's new home prices shrank the most in nearly 9 years last month. Some biggest laggards of the day under big-cap were Sands China (-6.0%), Li Auto (-5.0%), Xiaomi Corp. (-3.8%). and Kuaishou Tech. (-3.4%).

由于公用事业账单的高基数效应继续消退，意大利的年通货膨胀率从2月份的0.8%上升到2024年3月的1.2%，但仍低于1.3%的初步结果。家具和家用设备（1.5%对1.4%，2月份）、健康（1.6%对1.5%）、运输（2.4%对1.6%）以及杂项商品和服务（3.1%对2.9%）的价格加速上涨。此外，住房和公用事业（-6.9%对-11.8%）以及通信（-5.6%对-6.2%）的通货紧缩有所缓解。另一方面，食品和非酒精饮料（2.9%对3.9%）、酒精饮料和烟草（1.5%对2.4%）、服装和鞋类（1.7%对2.1%）以及娱乐和文化（0.5%对0.9%）的成本有所下降。与此同时，教育（1.9%）和餐馆及酒店（4%）的通胀率保持不变。月度消费价格没有变化。

The annual inflation rate in Italy rose to 1.2% in March of 2024, from 0.8% in February as high base effects for utility bills continued to fade, but still below preliminary results of 1.3%. Prices accelerated for furniture & household equipment (1.5% vs 1.4% in February), health (1.6% vs 1.5%), transport (2.4% vs 1.6%), and miscellaneous goods & services (3.1% vs 2.9%). In addition, deflation softened for housing & utilities (-6.9% vs -11.8%) and communication (-5.6% vs -6.2%). On the other hand, cost eased for food & non-alcoholic beverages (2.9% vs 3.9%), alcoholic beverages & tobacco (1.5% vs 2.4%), clothing & footwear (1.7% vs 2.1%), and recreation & culture (0.5% vs 0.9%). Meanwhile, the inflation rate remained unchanged for education (1.9%) and restaurants & hotels (4%). Monthly, consumer prices showed no movements.

周二，基于卢布的MOEX俄罗斯指数几乎没有变化，收于3470点，IT和电信板块的上涨抵消了矿工和冶金师以及石油和天然气板块的下跌。在个股中，俄罗斯铝业（-1.4%）、GLTR（-1.3%）、PIK（-13%）、AFK Sistema（-1.2%）、Seligdar（-1.1%）最为看跌。此外，受铝和金价调整的影响，Polus和EN+分别下跌约1%。相比之下，Unipro（4.4%）、MTS（1.4%）、MosEnergo（1.2%）、Magnit（1.2%）和Sovcomflot（1.1%）上涨。与此同时，投资者仍然关注NLMK，该公司未达到市场对2023年下半年收入和息税折旧摊销前利润的预期。X5公布了2024年第一季度的经营业绩，收入和同类销售额显示出积极的动态。

The ruble-based MOEX Russia Index traded little changed at 3,470 on Tuesday, as gains in the IT and telecommunications sectors offset losses in miners & metallurgists and oil & gas. Among individual stocks, Rusal (-1.4%), GLTR (-1.3%), PIK (-1.3%), AFK Sistema (-1.2%), Seligdar (-1.1%) were the most bearish. Also, Polus and EN+ fell by around 1% each, affected by the correction in aluminum and gold prices. In contrast, Unipro (4.4%), MTS (1.4%), MosEnergo (1.2%), Magnit (1.2%), and Sovcomflot (1.1%) advanced. Meanwhile, investors remained attentive to NLMK which missed market expectations for revenue and EBITDA in the second half of 2023. The operating results for q1 of 2024 were presented by X5, with revenues and like-for-like sales showing positive dynamics.

周二，基准KOSPI指数下跌2.3%，至2610点，收于两个多月来的最低水平，创下自1月份以来的最大单日跌幅，外界猜测，在强劲的美国零售销售数据公布后，美联储将比最初预期的更长时间保持利率。此外，伊朗上周末对以色列发动无人机和导弹袭击后，中东紧张局势加剧，进一步抑制了市场情绪。与此同时，中国第一季度公布了强劲的年度GDP数据，但3月份工业产出和零售贸易的增长低于预期。在国内，韩国出口价格在上月增长4.5%后，3月份同比上涨2.6%，而进口价格则从2月份的0.4%下降了0.7%。跌幅居前的是三星电子（-2.7%）、SK海力士（-4.8%）、LG能源解决方案（-1.9%）和三星生物制品（-1%）。现代汽车（0.2%）和起亚汽车（0.1%）等汽车制造商股价上涨。

The benchmark KOSPI dropped 2.3% to 2,610 points on Tuesday, closing at its lowest level in over two months and logging its biggest daily loss since January, amid speculations that the Fed will hold rates longer than initially expected following strong US retail sales data. Moreover, rising tensions in the Middle East further dampened market sentiments following Iran's launch of a drone and missile assault against Israel last weekend. Meanwhile, China posted robust annual GDP figures in Q1, but its March industrial output and retail trade rose less than expected. At home, South Korea’s export prices rose by 2.6% year-on-year in March, after a 4.5% growth in the prior month, while its import prices fell by 0.7%, down from a 0.4% decrease in February. Leading the losses were Samsung Electronics (-2.7%), SK Hynix (-4.8%), LG Energy Solution (-1.9%), and Samsung Biologics (-1%). Automakers such as Hyundai Motors (0.2%) and Kia Corp (0.1%) managed to tick higher.