2022年6月，美国批发库存较上月增长1.8%，达到8954亿美元，略低于最初估计的1.9%的增长率，此前一个月增长了1.9%。这是连续第23个月上涨，耐用品（5月分别为2%和2.1%）和非耐用品（分别为1.4%和1.7%）的股票均上涨。6月份批发库存按年增长25.5%，也略低于早些时候的25.6%。

Wholesale inventories in the US advanced by 1.8% from a month earlier to $895.4 billion in June of 2022, slightly below an initial estimate of a 1.9% rise and after a 1.9% increase in the previous month. It was the 23rd straight month of gains, as stocks of both durable goods (2% vs 2.1% in May) and nondurables (1.4% vs 1.7%) stocks increased. On an annual basis, wholesale inventories jumped 25.5% in June, also slightly below an earlier reading of 25.6%.

US30上升至33305的10周高点

US30 increased to a 10-week high of 33305

伦敦股市在周三开局不佳后重新获得牵引力，基准富时100指数在非必需消费品和房地产股上涨的推动下，两个多月来首次突破7500点。美国通胀指数低于预期，引发了大部分上涨势头，投资者降低了对美联储将在9月大幅加息的预期。在公司方面，英杰华在2022年上半年营业利润增长14%后，该指数上涨超过10%，领涨。

London equities regained traction after a sour start on Wednesday, with the benchmark FTSE 100 breaking above the 7,500 mark for the first time in over two months, driven by gains among consumer discretionary and real estate stocks. A softer-than-expected US inflation reading triggered most of the upside momentum, with investors scaling back expectations that the Fed will deliver a hefty rate hike in September. On the corporate side, Aviva surged more than 10% to lead gains on the index after the company reported a 14% increase in operating profit in the first half of 2022.

美元兑人民币下跌至4周低点6.7215

USDCNY decreased to a 4-week low of 6.7215

周三，标准普尔/多伦多证交所综合指数上涨近1%，收于19730点以上，接近两个月来未见的水平，因为投资者评估了最新的美国CPI数据及其对主要央行货币政策决策的影响。美国的年通胀率远低于预期，缓解了对美联储过度加息的担忧，并支撑了多伦多重量级能源板块的股票。对美元的需求放缓也推高了对黄金的需求，使加拿大矿业股平均上涨超过1%。与此同时，科技股追随邻近的纳斯达克指数，上涨超过4%，领先于Shopify近6%的涨幅。

The S&P/TSX Composite Index was nearly 1% higher to trade above the 19,730 mark on Wednesday, approaching levels not seen in two months as investors assessed fresh US CPI figures and their impact on monetary policy decisions by major central banks. Annual inflation in the US was well below expectations, easing concerns of overly aggressive rate hikes by the Fed and supporting stocks in Toronto’s heavyweight energy sector. Eased demand for the greenback also drove up demand for bullion, lifting Canadian miners to gain more than 1% on average. Meanwhile, tech shares tracked the neighboring Nasdaq index and surged over 4%, led by a near 6% jump from Shopify.

周三道琼斯指数上涨400多点，标准普尔500指数和纳斯达克指数分别上涨1.7%和2.3%，因为投资者对通胀指数低于预期做出反应，促使市场猜测美联储可能会放松加息。由于汽油价格大幅下跌，美国年通胀率从40多年来的最高水平9.1%降至2022年7月的8.5%。核心通胀消除了食品和能源价格的波动，涨幅也低于预期。上周公布的就业报告好于预期，缓解了人们对这个世界最大经济体即将陷入衰退的担忧。在此之前，有迹象表明通胀可能达到峰值。在公司方面，迪斯尼的季度业绩预计将在收盘后公布。

The Dow added over 400 points on Wednesday, and the S&P 500 and Nasdaq rallied 1.7% and 2.3%, respectively, as investors reacted to a softer-than-expected reading on inflation, prompting markets to speculate that the Federal Reserve might ease the interest rate hikes. The annual US inflation rate slowed to 8.5% in July of 2022 from an over 40-year high of 9.1% amid a significant drop in gasoline prices. Core inflation, which removes volatile food and energy prices, also saw a smaller-than-expected gain. Signs that inflation could be peaking followed a better-than-expected employment report last week, easing concerns about an imminent recession in the world's largest economy. On the corporate side, Disney's quarterly results are expected after the closing bell.

欧洲股市周三逆转走势，大涨，Dax指数上涨逾1%，斯托克600指数上涨近0.7%，追踪美国市场的反弹，数据显示美国7月份通胀率放缓超过预期，缓解了美联储下月大幅加息的预期。对欧洲央行年底加息的押注也有所降低。与此同时，新的公司业绩继续为投资者提供一些支持，Ahold Delhaize公布了强劲的盈利，并表示将推迟其非食品零售商Bol.com的首次公开募股计划。与此同时，荷兰银行的净收入超过预期。

European stocks reversed course and surged on Wednesday, with the Dax adding more than 1% and the Stoxx 600 nearly 0.7%, tracking a rally in US markets, after data showed the inflation rate in the US slowed more than expected in July, easing expectations of an aggressive Fed rate hike next month. Bets on rate hikes from the ECB for the end of the year were also lowered. Meanwhile, fresh corporate results continue to offer investors some support, with Ahold Delhaize reporting strong earnings and saying it will postpone plans for an initial IPO of its non-food retailer, Bol.com. At the same time, net income from ABN Amro Bank topped forecasts.

美元指数一个多月来首次跌破105点大关，此前美国通胀指数低于预期，可能导致美联储放缓其激进的政策紧缩计划。由于汽油价格大幅下跌，美国年通胀率从40多年来的最高水平9.1%降至2022年7月的8.5%。核心通胀消除了食品和能源价格的波动，涨幅也低于预期。在9月份美国央行的下一次政策会议上，市场目前预计将上调50个基点。

The dollar index broke below the 105 mark for the first time in over a month after a softer-than-expected US inflation reading brought the possibility that the Federal Reserve slows down its aggressive policy tightening plans. The annual US inflation rate slowed to 8.5% in July of 2022 from an over 40-year high of 9.1% amid a significant drop in gasoline prices. Core inflation, which removes volatile food and energy prices, also saw a smaller-than-expected increase. Markets are now pricing in a 50 bps hike at the US central bank’s next policy meeting in September.

10年期美国国债收益率急剧下降至2.7%的水平，接近本月早些时候触及的4个月低点2.5%，低于预期的通胀数据缓解了对美联储将延长其激进紧缩步伐的担忧。7月份，美国的消费价格每年上涨8.5%，低于8.7%的预期，而核心通胀率却出人意料地停滞不前。消费者价格上涨的希望已经窥见，这促使投资者重新考虑美联储的鸽派政策支点，在上周的热门工资数据公布后回溯鹰派的押注。

The yield on the 10-year US Treasury note declined sharply to the 2.7% level, approaching the four-month low of 2.5% hit earlier in the month as lower than expected inflation figures eased worries that the Fed will extend its aggressive tightening pace. Consumer prices in the US rose 8.5% annually in July, lower than expectations of 8.7%, while the core inflation rate unexpectedly stagnated. Hopes that the rise in consumer prices have peeked drove investors to reconsider the Fed’s dovish policy pivot, backtracking hawkish bets after last week’s hot payroll data.

周三，与三大指数挂钩的股票期货合约上涨约2%，因为投资者对通胀数据低于预期的反应，促使市场猜测美联储可能会放松加息。由于汽油价格大幅下跌，美国年通胀率从40多年来的最高水平9.1%降至2022年7月的8.5%。核心通胀消除了食品和能源价格的波动，涨幅也低于预期。上周公布的就业报告好于预期，缓解了人们对这个世界最大经济体即将陷入衰退的担忧。在此之前，有迹象表明通胀可能达到峰值。在周二的常规交易中，道指下跌0.2%，标准普尔500指数下跌0.4%，以科技股为主的纳斯达克指数下跌1.2%。

Stock futures contracts tied to the three major indices soared roughly 2% on Wednesday as investors reacted to a softer-than-expected reading on inflation, prompting markets to speculate that the Federal Reserve might ease the interest rate hikes. The annual US inflation rate slowed to 8.5% in July of 2022 from an over 40-year high of 9.1% amid a significant drop in gasoline prices. Core inflation, which removes volatile food and energy prices, also saw a smaller-than-expected gain. Signs that inflation could be peaking followed a better-than-expected employment report last week, easing concerns about an imminent recession in the world's largest economy. In regular trading on Tuesday, the Dow fell 0.2%, the S&P 500 lost 0.4%, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq dropped 1.2%.

2022年7月，美国的年通胀率从6月创下的9.1%的40多年高点放缓至8.5%，低于市场预测的8.7%。能源消费物价指数在6月份达到41.6%的42年高点后，上涨了32.9%，主要原因是汽油成本（44%对59.9%）、燃料油（75.6%对98.5%）和天然气（30.5%对38.4%）大幅下降，而电价上涨（15.2%，为2006年2月以来最高）。新车成本（10.4%对11.4%）和机票成本（27.7%对34.1%）也有所下降，但食品价格的通胀率继续走高（10.9%，为1979年5月以来的最大增幅，对10.4%）；庇护所（5.7%对5.6%）；以及二手车和卡车（6.6%对1.7%）。与前一个月相比，CPI保持不变，此前达到了17年来的最高水平1.3%，也低于预测的0.2%。核心通胀率稳定在5.9%，高于6.1%的预期，为通胀最终达到峰值提供了一些支持。

The annual inflation rate in the US slowed more than expected to 8.5% in July of 2022 from an over 40-year high of 9.1% hit in June, and below market forecasts of 8.7%. Energy CPI rose by 32.9%, after hitting a 42-year high of 41.6% in June, mainly due to a big slowdown in gasoline costs (44% vs 59.9%), fuel oil (75.6% vs 98.5%), and natural gas (30.5% vs 38.4%) while electricity prices accelerated (15.2%, the most since February 2006). Cost also slowed for new vehicles (10.4% vs 11.4%) and airline fares (27.7% vs 34.1%), but inflation continued to march higher for food (10.9%, the largest increase since May of 1979, vs 10.4%); shelter (5.7% vs 5.6%); and used cars and trucks (6.6% vs 1.7%). Compared to the previous month, the CPI was unchanged, after hitting a 17-year high of 1.3% and also below forecasts of 0.2%. Core inflation was steady at 5.9%, beating expectations of 6.1%, and offering some support that inflation has finally peaked.

澳元兑美元上涨至7周高点0.70465

AUDUSD increased to a 7-week high of 0.70465

欧元在8月中旬跃升至1.03美元，这是一个月来从未见过的水平，这是由于7月份美国通胀率低于预期后，美元略微走弱，缓解了对美联储下月大幅加息的预期。对欧洲央行年底加息的押注也有所降低。据路透社报道，目前预计12月将上调105个基点，而此前为113个基点。欧洲央行仍将在9月份将借贷成本再提高50个基点。尽管取得了这些进展，但由于通胀没有达到峰值的迹象，且能源危机远未结束，高能源价格导致消费者和生产者成本广泛反弹，对欧洲即将爆发的经济危机的担忧持续存在，共同货币仍保持接近平价。

The Euro jumped to $1.03 in mid-August, a level not seen in a month, prompted by a slightly weaker dollar after US inflation rate came below forecasts in July, easing expectations of an aggressive Fed rate hike next month. Bets on rate hikes from the ECB for the end of the year were also lowered. 105 bps of hikes are now expected in December versus 113 bps before, according to Reuters. The ECB is still seen raising borrowing costs by another 50bps in September. Despite the gains, the common currency holds close to parity as concerns of a looming economic crisis in Europe persist as inflation shows no signs of peaking and the energy crisis is far from over with high energy prices leading to a broad based rally in consumer and producer costs.

8月，澳大利亚10年期政府债券收益率接近3.3%，从本月初的近4个月低点反弹，因为投资者正在权衡全球经济放缓的前景、持续的通胀压力，并押注央行将继续提高借贷成本。8月2日，RBA将现金利率上调50个基点至1.85%，并表示关键利率将在12月继续升至3%。尽管如此，仍有人担心借贷成本的大幅上升会损害经济。今年4月，现金利率低得多，为0.1%。

The yield on the Australian 10-year government bond approached 3.3% in August, bouncing back from a near 4-month low early in the month, as investors weigh prospects of a global economic slowdown, persistent inflationary pressures, and bets the central bank will continue to raise borrowing costs. The RBA raised the cash rate by 50 bps to 1.85% on August 2nd and signalled the key rate will continue to rise to hit 3% in December. Still, there are some concerns that such a big rise in borrowing costs will hurt the economy. In April this year, the cash rate was much lower at 0.1%.

8月第一周，美国抵押贷款申请增加0.2%，原因是再融资增加3.5%，而购房申请减少1.4%。与此同时，30年期固定利率抵押贷款的平均利率上升了4个基点，至5.47%。与前一年相比，再融资减少了82%，购房申请减少了19%。MBA副总裁Joel Kan表示：“尽管就业市场强劲，但购房市场仍在放缓。过去六周中，有五周的活动有所下降，因为购房者仍处于观望状态，原因是他们的支付能力仍很严峻，而且对经济实力持怀疑态度。”。

Mortgage applications in the US edged 0.2% higher in the first week of August, prompted by a 3.5% jump in refinancing while those to purchase a home fell 1.4%. Meanwhile, the average rate on a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage increased 4bps to 5.47%. Compared to the previous year, refinancing is down 82% and applications to buy a home are 19% lower. “The purchase market continues to experience a slowdown, despite the strong job market. Activity has now fallen in five of the last six weeks, as buyers remain on the sidelines due to still-challenging affordability conditions and doubts about the strength of the economy”, Joel Kan, MBA’s associate vice president said.