澳元升值至0.666美元大关以上，接近5月15日触及的四个月高点0.67美元，因为最新经济数据支持澳大利亚储备银行和美联储之间相互矛盾的货币政策反应。美联储首选的基本指标按月放缓，而美国个人支出未达到预期，在美国第一季度GDP下调后，又增加了一批冷数据。相反，国内强于预期的通胀数据增加了澳大利亚储备银行可能不得不再次提高借贷成本的风险。最新的月度CPI显示年环比增长3.6%，高于3月份的3.5%。尽管如此，对澳元的支持有限，因为中国制造业活动的意外收缩和建筑业活动的放缓削弱了澳大利亚最大大宗商品消费国的进口需求。

The Australian dollar appreciated to above the $0.666 mark, approaching the four-month high of $0.67 touched on May 15th as the latest economic data favored conflicting monetary policy responses between the RBA and the Fed. The Fed’s preferred measure of underlying slowed on a monthly basis while US personal spending missed expectations, adding to a batch of cold data after the US GDP was revised lower in the first quarter. Conversely, stronger-than-expected inflation figures domestically added to the risk that the RBA may have to raise borrowing costs again. The latest monthly CPI pointed to a 3.6% increase in annual terms, accelerating from the 3.5% in March. Still, support for the Aussie was limited as the unexpected contraction in Chinese manufacturing activity and a slowdown in its construction activity dented import demand for Australia’s top commodity consumer.

澳大利亚10年期政府债券收益率跌至4.4%，从四周高点回落，并追随美国国债收益率的回落，因为美国第一季度GDP数据的下调重振了美国降息的希望，尽管最近一系列强劲的美国经济数据和美联储官员的鹰派言论给前景蒙上了阴影。在国内，强于预期的通胀数据增加了澳大利亚储备银行可能不得不再次加息的风险。最近的数据显示，澳大利亚的月通胀率从3月份的3.5%加速至4月份的3.6%。这也超出了市场对经济放缓至3.4%的预期，为11月以来的最高水平。市场目前押注澳大利亚储备银行将在更长时间内保持高利率，直到明年5月才会完全考虑降息。

Australia’s 10-year government bond yield fell toward 4.4%, easing from four-week highs and tracking a pullback in US Treasury yields as a downward revision in US first quarter GDP numbers revived hopes for US rate cuts, although a recent run of strong US economic data and hawkish remarks from Federal Reserve officials clouded the outlook. Domestically, stronger-than-expected inflation figures added to the risk that the Reserve Bank of Australia might have to raise rates again. Recent data showed that Australia’s monthly inflation rate accelerated to 3.6% year-on-year in April from 3.5% in March. That also defied market expectations for a slowdown to 3.4% and was the highest since November. Markets are currently betting that the RBA would keep rates high for longer, with a rate cut not fully priced in until May next year.

由于投资者继续评估全球利率前景，澳元稳定在0.663美元左右。澳元在本周晚些时候获得了一些支持，因为美国第一季度GDP数据的下调重振了对美国降息的希望，尽管最近一系列强劲的美国经济数据和美联储官员的鹰派言论给前景蒙上了阴影。在国内，强于预期的通胀数据增加了澳大利亚储备银行可能不得不再次加息的风险。数据显示，澳大利亚的月通胀率从3月份的3.5%加速至4月份的3.6%。这也超出了市场对经济放缓至3.4%的预期，为11月以来的最高水平。市场目前押注澳大利亚储备银行将在更长时间内保持高利率，直到明年5月才会完全考虑降息。

The Australian dollar stabilized around $0.663 as investors continued to assess the interest rate outlook globally. The aussie found some support late in the week as a downward revision in US first quarter GDP data revived hopes for US rate cuts, although a recent run of strong US economic data and hawkish remarks from Federal Reserve officials clouded the outlook. Domestically, stronger-than-expected inflation figures added to the risk that the Reserve Bank of Australia might have to raise rates again. Data showed that Australia’s monthly inflation rate accelerated to 3.6% year-on-year in April from 3.5% in March. That also defied market expectations for a slowdown to 3.4% and was the highest since November. Markets are currently betting that the RBA would keep rates high for longer, with a rate cut not fully priced in until May next year.

2024年4月，澳大利亚私营部门信贷环比增长0.5%，与市场预期一致，超过了前一时期0.4%的增长。在分部门中，住房信贷和商业信贷的增长速度与上年同期相同，分别为0.4%和0.6%。与此同时，个人信贷从3月份的0.4%降至0.2%。按年度计算，私营部门信贷增长5.2%，与3月份修正后的八个月高点持平。

Private sector credit in Australia rose by 0.5% month-on-month in April 2024, aligning with market estimates and exceeding the previous period’s 0.4% growth. Among subsectors, housing credit and business credit grew at the same pace as in the prior period, at 0.4% and 0.6%, respectively. Meanwhile, personal credit slowed to 0.2% from 0.4% in March. On an annual basis, private sector credit increased by 5.2%, unchanged from a revised eight-month high in March.