德国10年期国债收益率继周三下跌9个基点后，周四升至2.55%以上，因为美联储对降息的强硬立场影响了市场情绪。美联储的最新预测将今年的预期降息幅度从三次降至一次。货币市场也进行了相应调整，与之前的预期相比，欧洲央行和美联储2024年的降息幅度较小。他们现在预计欧洲央行将降息57个基点，低于美联储声明前的63个基点，这意味着2024年降息一次，有30%的可能性达到第三次。与此同时，在摩根士丹利资本国际股份有限公司宣布不会将欧盟债务纳入其政府债券指数后，欧盟债券下跌。

The German 10-year bund yield rose to over 2.55% on Thursday, following a 9bps drop on Wednesday, as the U.S. Federal Reserve's more hawkish stance on rate cuts affected market sentiment. The Fed's latest projection reduced the expected rate cuts this year from three to just one. Money markets adjusted accordingly, pricing in fewer European Central Bank and Federal Reserve rate cuts for 2024 compared to prior expectations. They now anticipate 57 bps of ECB cuts, down from 63 bps before the Fed statement, suggesting one cut in 2024 with a 30% chance of a third. Meanwhile, the European Union’s bonds fell after MSCI Inc. announced it won’t add the bloc’s debt to its government bond indexes.

继上一交易日上涨1.4%后，DAX 40指数周四下跌0.3%，低于18600点，反映了欧洲市场对长期加息的担忧。美联储决定维持联邦基金利率，预计今年只降息一次，而不是之前预期的三次。在德国，最新数据显示，5月份批发价格同比下降0.7%，这是连续第13个月下降，但降幅低于4月份1.8%的降幅。西门子和空中客车等主要公司股价分别下跌0.8%和0.4%。其他著名公司，如默克公司、梅赛德斯-奔驰公司、西门子医疗公司和宝马公司，股价下跌0.5%至1.5%。Zalando在该指数中受到的打击最为严重，跌幅超过2%。相反，SAP和德国电信上涨约1%，英飞凌微涨0.6%，安联上涨0.3%。

The DAX 40 traded 0.3% lower below 18600 on Thursday following a 1.4% increase in the previous session, mirroring trends seen across European markets amid concerns over prolonged higher interest rates. The Federal Reserve decided to maintain the federal funds rate, with just one rate cut expected this year instead of the previously anticipated three. In Germany, fresh data showed wholesale prices fell by 0.7% year-on-year in May, marking the 13th consecutive monthly decline but at a slower rate than April's 1.8% drop. Key players such as Siemens and Airbus saw declines of 0.8% and 0.4% respectively. Other notable companies like Merck, Mercedes-Benz AG, Siemens Healthineers, and BMW experienced decreases ranging from 0.5% to 1.5%. Zalando took the hardest hit in the index, falling by over 2%. Conversely, SAP and Deutsche Telekom saw around a 1% increase while Infineon edged up by 0.6% and Allianz rose by 0.3%.

2024年5月，德国批发价格同比下降0.7%，较上月的1.8%有所回落。这是生产者价格连续第13个月下降，但速度最慢，因为化学产品（-13.9%）、钢铁和黑色金属半成品（-12.1%）、谷物、未加工烟草、种子和动物饲料（-5.1%）以及牛奶、奶制品、鸡蛋、食用油脂（-5.5%）的成本较低。另一方面，有色金属矿石、有色金属和有色金属半成品（9.7%）、咖啡、茶、可可和香料（8.2%）、糖、糖果和烘焙产品（7.2%）、水果、蔬菜和土豆（6.4%）以及烟草制品（5.4%）的价格上涨。5月份批发价格继4月份上涨0.1%后，环比小幅上涨0.1%，为三个月来最弱的涨幅。

Germany's wholesale prices shrank by 0.7% year-on-year in May 2024, easing from a 1.8% fall in the previous month. This was the 13th consecutive month of drop in producer prices but the softest pace in the sequence, amid lower cost of chemical products (-13.9%), iron, steel and ferrous semi-finished metal products (-12.1%), grain, unmanufactured tobacco, seeds and animal feeds (-5.1%), and milk, milk products, eggs, edible fats and oils (-5.1%). On the other hand, prices increased for non-ferrous ores, non-ferrous metals and non-ferrous semi-finished metal products (9.7%), coffee, tea, cocoa and spices (8.2%), sugar, confectionery and bakery products (7.2%), fruit, vegetables and potatoes (6.4%), and tobacco products (5.4%) On a monthly basis, wholesale prices edged up 0.1% in May, the weakest growth in three months, after a 0.1% rise in April.

德国10年期国债收益率从5月底的6个多月高点2.707%降至2.53%，这与美国CPI数据低于预期后美国国债收益率的下降相一致。与此同时，美联储保持了预期的利率稳定，并表示今年只降息一次，明年降息四次，低于市场对2024年的预期。在欧洲，货币市场预计2024年欧洲央行将放松约40个基点的货币政策，这意味着到年底将降息一次，第三次降息的可能性为60%。在政治方面，无论即将到来的选举结果如何，法国总统马克龙都排除了辞职的可能性。

The German 10-year bund yield fell to 2.53%, down from an over 6-month high of 2.707% at the end of May, tracking a drop in US treasury yields after softer-than-expected CPI data in the US. Meanwhile, the Fed kept rates steady as expected, and signaled only one rate cut this year and four reductions next year, less than market expectations for 2024. In Europe, money markets anticipate around 40 basis points of ECB monetary easing in 2024, suggesting one rate cut and a 60% chance of a third cut by year-end. On the political front, France's President Macron ruled out resigning whatever the result of the upcoming election.