俄罗斯10年期政府债券收益率升至15.13%的26个月高点。过去4周，俄罗斯10Y债券收益率上涨55.50个基点，过去12个月上涨431.00个基点。

Russia 10 Year Government Bond Yield increased to a 26-month high of 15.13%. Over the past 4 weeks, Russia 10Y Bond Yield gained 55.50 basis points, and in the last 12 months, it increased 431.00 basis points.

受高利率、国家外汇销售和资本管制的推动，俄罗斯卢布在5月底升值至88美元大关，为四个月来最强劲。莫斯科定于5月每天出售价值63亿卢布的外汇，以弥补相对于联邦预算预测的能源出口缺口，防止卢布贬值。此外，该货币仍得到总统令的支持，该法令要求主要出口商在收到资金后120天内将至少80%的外汇收益出售给俄罗斯银行，这一措施将持续到2025年4月底。此外，当前的纳税期将于下周二结束，市场上的外币供应量预计将减少，因为出口商通常会在月底将外币收入转换为当地税收。

The Russian ruble appreciated towards the 88 per USD mark in the end of May, its strongest in four months, driven by high interest rates, state forex sales and capital controls. Moscow is set to sell RUB 6.3 billion worth of foreign exchange per day in May to compensate for the shortfall in energy exports relative to federal budget forecasts, preventing a decline in the ruble's value. Additionally, the currency remained supported by a presidential decree requiring key exporters to sell at least 80% of foreign exchange proceeds to Russian banks within 120 days of receiving funds, a measure set to continue until the end of April 2025. Furthermore, the current tax period will end next Tuesday, and the volume of foreign currency supply in the market is expected to decrease as exporters typically convert foreign currency revenue to meet local tax liabilities at the end of the month.

在俄罗斯银行鹰派言论的支持下，俄罗斯10年期OFZ收益率反弹至14.7%，再次接近5月20日创下的15.1%的13年高点。在上次会议的会议记录中，CBR官员表示，利率可能需要在很长一段时间内保持在当前水平，由于持续的价格压力，不排除进一步加息。此前，2024年和2025年的平均关键利率预测分别上调至15-16%和10-12%。此外，最近每周通胀率加速至7.8%，限制了央行今年开始放松政策的能力。政府支出的增加也增加了克里姆林宫对OFZ发行以弥补财政赤字的依赖。初步估计显示，2024年第一季度联邦预算支出达93260亿卢布，同比增长20.1%。

The yield on the Russian 10-year OFZ rebounded to 14.7%, approaching again its 13-year high of 15.1% recorded on May 20th, supported by the hawkish rhetoric of the Bank of Russia. In the minutes from their last meeting, CBR officials indicated that interest rates might need to remain at current levels for an extended period, and further rate hikes were not ruled out due to ongoing price pressures. This followed the upward revisions of the average key interest rate forecasts for 2024 and 2025 to 15-16% and 10-12%, respectively. Additionally, the recent acceleration of weekly inflation to 7.8% has limited the central bank's ability to begin easing policy this year. Rising government spending has also increased the Kremlin's reliance on OFZ issuance to cover the fiscal deficit. Preliminary estimates show that federal budget expenditures in the first quarter of 2024 amounted to 9,326 billion rubles, a 20.1% year-on-year increase.

俄罗斯MOEX股指从5月中旬的3503点跌至5月底的3420点，这是自入侵乌克兰以来的最高点。俄罗斯天然气工业股份公司宣布2023年亏损68亿美元，这是自1999年以来的首次亏损，原因是对欧洲的天然气销售减少。受此影响，俄罗斯政府指示这家国有天然气巨头放弃今年的股息，使其股价达到2018年以来的最高水平。俄罗斯第二大天然气生产商诺瓦泰克的股价也有所下跌，创下一年来的新低，2023年的股息比2022年减少了22%。尽管如此，在过去两年里，仍有机会进入俄罗斯市场的国内零售和外国投资者在提振股市方面发挥了重要作用，为寻求投资机会的俄罗斯公司提供了急需的资本。

Russia's MOEX stock index declined to 3420 towards the end of May, slipping from 3503 in mid-May, which was the highest since before the Ukraine invasion. The downturn followed Gazprom's announcement of a $6.8 billion loss for 2023, its first since 1999, attributed to reduced gas sales to Europe. Prompted by this, the Russian government directed the state-run gas giant to forgo dividends for the year, sending its shares to levels not seen since 2018. Novatek, Russia's second-largest gas producer, also saw a drop in stock value, hitting one-year lows with a 22% decrease in 2023 dividends compared to 2022. Despite this, domestic retail and foreign investors who still have access to Russian markets, have been instrumental in bolstering the stock market over the past two years, providing much-needed capital for Russian firms seeking investment opportunities.