澳大利亚10年期政府债券收益率保持在4.5%以下，徘徊在接近两个月来的最低水平，并追随美国债券收益率最近的疲软，因为美国政策制定者的鸽派言论强化了人们对美联储已完成加息并可能在明年开始宽松的押注。在国内，投资者为澳大利亚储备银行的政策决定做好了准备，预计该银行将在分析之前加息对经济的影响的同时保持利率稳定。与此同时，最新数据显示，澳大利亚11月的月度通胀指标三个月来首次转正，而10月的住房贷款增长超过预期。

Australia’s 10-year government bond yield held below 4.5%, hovering close to its lowest levels in two months and tracking recent weakness in US bond yields as dovish remarks from US policymakers reinforced bets that the Federal Reserve is done raising interest rates and could start easing next year. Domestically, investors braced for the Reserve Bank of Australia’s policy decision, where it is expected to hold interest rates steady while analyzing the impact of previous hikes on the economy. Meanwhile, latest data showed that a monthly inflation gauge in Australia turned positive in November for the first time in three months, while housing loans rose more than expected in October.

澳元跌至0.665美元左右，从四个月高点小幅回落，因投资者为澳大利亚储备银行的政策决定做好准备，预计该银行将在分析之前加息对经济的影响的同时保持利率稳定。尽管如此，澳元仍处于高位，因为最新数据显示，澳大利亚11月的月度通胀指标三个月来首次转正，而10月的住房贷款增长超过预期。澳大利亚储备银行行长Michele Bullock此前也警告称，国内需求对通胀的贡献越来越大，需要利率做出“实质性”反应。市场现在认为，央行明年再次加息的可能性约为50%。从外部来看，对美联储明年可能开始放松政策的押注不断增加，也提振了澳元。

The Australian dollar slipped to around $0.665, retreating slightly from four-month highs as investors braced for the Reserve Bank of Australia’s policy decision, where it is expected to hold interest rates steady while analyzing the impact of previous hikes on the economy. Still, the aussie remained at elevated levels as latest data showed that a monthly inflation gauge in Australia turned positive in November for the first time in three months, while housing loans rose more than expected in October. RBA Governor Michele Bullock also previously warned that domestic demand has been contributing increasingly to inflation, requiring a “substantial” response from interest rates. Markets now see around a 50% chance that the central bank would hike rates again next year. Externally, growing bets that the US Federal Reserve will likely start easing policy next year provided a boost to the aussie as well.

2023年10月，澳大利亚零售额环比下降0.2%，此前一个月增长0.9%。这是自6月以来零售贸易的首次下降，因为消费者按下了一些可自由支配支出的暂停键，等待着黑色星期五的销售活动。大多数类别的销售额都较低，即家居用品零售业（-0.6%对1.7%，9月）、服装、鞋类（-1.0%对0.2%）、百货公司（-0.6%比1.7%）、其他零售业（-0.14%对1.1%）、咖啡馆、餐馆和外卖（-0.4%对-0.3%）。相比之下，食品零售业的销售额有所下降（0.5%对1.0%）。在全国范围内，新南威尔士州（-0.5%）、维多利亚州（-0.8%）、，南澳大利亚州（-0.1%）、北澳大利亚州（-0.1%）和澳大利亚首都领地（-0.5%）；而昆士兰（0.6%）和西澳大利亚（0.8%）则有所上升。

Retail sales in Australia dropped by 0.2% month-over-month in October 2023, unrevised from flash data, coming after a 0.9% increase in the prior month. This was the first decline in retail trade since June, as consumers hit the pause button on some discretionary spending and awaited Black Friday sales events. Sales were lower for most categories, namely household goods retailing (-0.6% vs 1.7% in September), clothing, footwear (-1.0% vs 0.2%), department stores (-0.6% vs 1.7%), other retailing (-0.4% vs 1.1%), cafes, restaurants, and takeaway food (-0.4% vs -0.3%). By contrast, sales of food retailing eased (0.5% vs 1.0%). Across the country, sales fell in New South Wales (-0.5%), Victoria (-0.8%), South Australia (-0.1%), Northern Territory (-0.1%), and Australian Capital Territory (-0.5%); while rising in Queensland (0.6%), and Western Australia (0.8%).

澳大利亚企业利润在2023年第三季度环比下降1.3%，较第二季度下调12.1%的降幅大幅放缓，而市场预测为下降0.3%。这是自2021年第一季度以来企业利润下降幅度最大的一次，矿工的利润下降幅度要小得多（第二季度为-7.7%，第二季度则为-20.9%）。与此同时，制造商（4.2%对-7.1%）、公用事业提供商（3.5%对-4.6%）、批发贸易商（0.8%对-4.5%）、运输（0.4%对-11.0%在截至9月的一年中，企业利润下降了1.7%，远低于前一时期10.7%的暴跌。

Corporate profits in Australia fell by 1.3% qoq in Q3 of 2023, slowing sharply from a downwardly revised 12.1% plunge in Q2, compared with market forecasts of a 0.3% drop. This was the softest decline in corporate profits since Q1 of 2021, with profits falling much softer at miners (-7.7% vs -20.9% in Q2). At the same time, profits recovered at manufacturers (4.2% vs -7.1%), utility providers (3.5% vs -4.6%), wholesale traders (0.8% vs -4.5%), transport (0.4% vs -11.0%), accommodation (11.6% vs -8.1%), constructors (7.4% vs -8.0%), and administrative and support services (1.9% vs -7.1%). Meantime, profits accelerated at retail traders (8.7% vs 3.8%) and arts and recreation (8.7% vs 3.9%) while continuing to grow for other services (3.2% vs 3.4%). By contrast, profits fell for information (-0.8% vs 0.7%) and financial and insurance (-1.0% vs 28.7%). Through the year to September, corporate profits dropped by 1.7%, much softer than a 10.7% plunge in the prior period.