印度卢比兑美元汇率上涨超过83.4，创下三周多来的最高水平，在美联储9月前降息的押注增加缓解了美元走强带来的压力后，印度卢比获得了一些喘息的机会。尽管如此，印度储备银行干预货币市场和支持卢比的空间有限，限制了对本币的购买欲望。对中国央行降息的预期和日元的持续疲软加剧了亚洲风险较高货币的巨大抛售压力。因此，投资者降低了对印度储备银行支持卢比空间的预期，因为印度储备银行通常对强势美元的防御将导致印度商品和服务在全球市场上对亚洲竞争对手的吸引力降低。尽管如此，印度经济的韧性和对印度储备银行的鹰派预期阻止了经济的进一步下滑。在最近的一次会议上，央行指出，食品价格上涨带来的通胀上行风险保证了长期的终端利率。

The Indian rupee strengthened past 83.4 per USD, the highest in over three weeks, enjoying some respite after increased bets of a Fed rate cut by September eased pressure from a strong greenback. Still, limited room for the RBI to intervene in currency markets and support the rupee limited buying appetite for the local currency. Expectations of rate cuts by the PBoC and sustained weakness in the yen exacerbated sharp selling pressure for riskier currencies across Asia. Consequently, investors pared expectations on the RBI’s room for rupee support, as its usual defense against a strong dollar would drive Indian goods and services to be less attractive against Asian rivals in global markets. Still, a resilient Indian economy and hawkish expectations for the RBI prevented an even sharper downturn. In its latest meeting, the central bank noted that upside risks to inflation due to higher food prices warrant a prolonged period of terminal interest rates.

印度10年期政府债券收益率低于7.1%，接近5月16日7.08%的七周低点，这与美国信贷市场敞口经济体主权收益率的下降相一致，因为投资者增加了对美联储第三季度降息的押注。对印度债券的需求也受到大量外国投资流入的支持，这主要是由于G-Sec被纳入主要资产管理公司的债券基金。摩根大通指出，自9月以来，在6月纳入该行指数之前，海外投资者向符合该行指数条件的工具流入了约80亿美元。此外，大华银行马来西亚分行于4月推出了一只以卢比计价的印度债券基金，为这一趋势增添了动力。尽管如此，收益率的下降受到印度储备银行延长其“退出融通”政策的限制，刺激了央行债券销售，反映出该行认为经济中过度的流动性可能会导致通货膨胀。

The yield on the Indian 10-year government bond was below 7.1%, holding close to the seven-week low of 7.08% on May 16th, tracking the decline in sovereign yields in economies with exposure to US credit markets as investors increased bets of a Fed rate cut in the third quarter. Demand for Indian bonds was also supported by large inflows of foreign investment, mainly due to the inclusion of G-Secs in bond funds of major asset managers. JPMorgan noted about $8 billion of inflows from overseas investors into the instruments that are eligible for the bank’s index since September, ahead of their inclusion in June. Additionally, the Malaysian branch of UOB launched a rupee-denominated India bond fund in April, adding momentum to the trend. Still, the decline in yields was limited by the RBI’s extension of its “Withdrawal of Accommodation” policy, spurring central bank bond sales reflecting the bank’s view that excessive liquidity in the economy may be contributing to inflation.

周五，BSE Sensex指数上涨253点，涨幅0.3%，收于73917点，为两周多来的最高点，标志着连续第二个交易日上涨。受3月份强劲的财务业绩和经纪公司的积极前景评论的提振，马恒达和马恒达的股价大幅上涨近6%。金属股也上涨，受益于美国通胀降温和中国刺激房地产市场的措施等因素。本周，BSE指数上涨1.7%，与前一周的大幅下跌相比有所逆转，这主要是由于第四季度盈利为正，以及美国通胀降温的迹象，推动了美联储降息的押注。

The BSE Sensex rose 253 points, or 0.3%, to close at 73,917 on Friday, its highest in over two weeks, marking the second straight session of gains. Mahindra & Mahindra witnessed a significant surge of nearly 6% in its share price, buoyed by strong financial results for the March quarter and positive outlook commentary from brokerage firms. Metal stocks also advanced, benefiting from factors such as a cooling US inflation and measures from China to stimulate its housing market. For the week, the BSE posted a 1.7% rise, a reversal from a steep loss in the prior week, largely due to positive Q4 earnings and signs of cooling inflation in the US that fueled bets of interest rate cuts from the Fed.

BSE Sensex指数在周五早盘交易中上涨258.8点，涨幅0.3%，至73922.6点，连续第二个交易日上涨，受科技、消费品和医疗保健涨幅的支撑。本周，BSE Sensex指数在前一周下跌后，将上涨1.7%，因为通胀降温和美国经济疲软的迹象增加了降息的可能性。投资者预计，中国5月的基准贷款利率将于下周确定，并将于今天监测中国首次拍卖的30年期债券，因为北京方面正在努力刺激疲软的经济。在印度最大贸易伙伴的最新数据显示工业产出增长超过预期，但零售额和固定投资增长低于预期后，中国的数据喜忧参半，限制了涨幅。Mahindra&Mahindra在公布2024财年第四季度净利润同比增长32%后上涨6.1%，而JSW Steel在今天晚些时候发布第四季度盈利报告前上涨1.1%。其他早盘上涨股包括Grasim和Ultracemco，分别上涨1.7%和1.2%。

The BSE Sensex advanced 258.8 points or 0.3% to 73,922.6 in early deals on Friday, up for the second straight session, supported by gains from tech, consumer goods, and healthcare. For the week, the BSE Sensex is heading for a 1.7% surge after falling in the prior week, as signs of cooling inflation and a softening US economy raised the prospect of rate cuts. Investors anticipate China benchmark lending rates for May fixing next week and monitoring the first auctioned China's 30-year bond today as Beijing efforts' to stimulate a flagging economy. Limiting the gain was mixed data from China after the latest data in India's top trading partner showed industrial output rose more than expected, but retail sales and fixed investment growth below forecasts. Mahindra & Mahindra jumped 6.1% after posting a 32% yoy surge in net profit for Q4FY 2024, while JSW Steel rose 1.1% ahead of the Q4 earnings report later today. Other early gainers were Grasim and Ultracemco by 1.7% and 1.2% each.