意大利10年期BTP收益率飙升至4%,为12月中旬以来的最高水平,因为最近的数据强化了美联储需要推迟降息的观点。尽管美国经济在第一季度的增长低于预期,但持续的通胀压力削弱了立即调整利率的预期。根据芝加哥商品交易所美联储观察工具,68.1%的交易员现在预计7月份利率将保持不变,高于前一天的55.9%。尽管如此,在欧洲,投资者仍在为欧洲央行今年三次降息做准备,随着通胀放缓和经济活动改善,首次降息最早可能在6月。与此同时,衡量意大利信贷风险的关键指标意大利和德国10年期国债收益率之间的利差升至138个基点,创下周新高。
The Italian 10-year BTP yield surged to 4%, the highest since mid-December, as recent data reinforced the view that the Fed will need to postpone rate cuts. While the US economy experienced lower-than-anticipated growth in Q1, persistent inflationary pressures tempered expectations for immediate rate adjustments. According to the CME Fed watch tool, 68.1% of traders now anticipate that interest rates will remain unchanged in July, up from only 55.9% the previous day. Still, in Europe, investors are bracing for three ECB rate cuts this year, with the initial cut potentially as early as June as inflation is slowing down and economic activity is improving. Meanwhile, the spread between Italian and German 10-year yields, a crucial measure of Italy's credit risk, rose to 138 basis points, a new weekly high.