新西兰澳新银行商业展望指数从一个月前的22.9跌至2024年4月的14.9，这是连续第三个月下降，也是自去年9月以来的最低值。最新的结果突显出，由于利率上升，经济明显疲软。预期自身活动大幅下降（14.3比3月的22.5），出口意向也大幅下降（4.3比7.8）。与此同时，投资意向（-3.5对3.9）和就业意向（-0.9对3.5）转为负值，而定价意向继续上升（46.9对45.1）。此外，成本预期达到七个月来的最高水平（76.7对74.6），工资压力持续存在（75.5对80.5），利润预期更为负面（-9.8对-3.8）。此外，产能利用率明显较低（9.2比11.7）。与此同时，通胀预期变化不大（3.76%对3.8%）。住宅建设大幅下降（-8.6比7.4），而商业建设显著改善（2.6比-3.3）。

The ANZ Business Outlook Index in New Zealand tumbled to 14.9 in April 2024 from 22.9 a month earlier, pointing to the third straight month of drop and marking the lowest reading since last September. The latest result underlined that the economy had weakened markedly in response to higher interest rates. Expected own activity sharply fell (14.3 vs 22.5 in March), as did intentions for exports (4.3 vs 7.8). At the same time, intentions for investment (-3.5 vs 3.9) and employment (-0.9 vs 3.5) turned negative while pricing intentions continued to rise (46.9 vs 45.1). Further, cost expectations hit their highest in seven months (76.7 vs 74.6), with wage pressures persisting (75.5 vs 80.5) and profit expectations being more negative (-9.8 vs -3.8). In addition, capacity utilization was notably lower (9.2 vs 11.7). Meanwhile, inflation expectations were little changed (3.76% vs 3.8%). Residential construction plunged (-8.6 vs 7.4) while commercial one improved notably (2.6 vs -3.3).

新西兰股市在前一交易日收盘上涨后，周二早盘下跌18.57点，跌幅0.16%，至11897.67点，因为市场参与者在第一季度失业数据发布前持谨慎态度，该数据可能为新西兰储备银行的政策轨迹提供线索。路透社调查显示，市场预计失业率将升至4.3%，为三年来最高。交易员们还预计美联储的利率决定和4月份的商业信心数据，此前美联储在3月份创下了6个月来的新低。限制跌幅的是美国市场，此前华尔街隔夜收盘走高，交易员在美联储政策利率决定前为繁忙的一周盈利报告做好准备。主要消费品、房地产和工业股拖累指数，权重股埃博集团（-0.74%）和澳新银行集团（-0.20%）明显疲软。其他早期跌幅较大的有Infratil（-1.31%）、新西兰南港（-0.89%）、A2 Milk（-0.77%）和Gentrack Group（-0.49%）。

Shares in New Zealand dropped 18.57 or 0.16% to 11,897.67 in early trade on Tuesday, after closing higher in the prior session, as market participants were cautious ahead of releases of the unemployment data for Q1 that could clues to the RBNZ's policy trajectory. Reuters poll showed the market expecting the jobless rate to rise to 4.3%, the highest in three years. Traders also anticipate the Fed interest rate decisions and the country's business confidence figures for April, after hitting its six-month low in March. Limiting the fall was the US market, after Wall Street closed higher overnight, as traders braced for busy week earnings reports ahead of the Fed policy rates decisions. Consumer staples, real estate, and industrials weighed the index, with notable weakness from Heavyweight stocks Ebos Group (-0.74%) and ANZ group (-0.20%). Other early decliners were Infratil (-1.31%), South Port New Zealand (-0.89%), A2 Milk (-0.77%), and Gentrack Group (-0.49%).

新西兰元交易价格高于0.596美元，徘徊在两周多来的最高水平附近，因为美元在本周晚些时候美联储政策会议之前走弱。投资者预计，在美国出现一系列粘性通胀后，降息将推迟，包括主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔在内的美联储官员强调，即使是这些计划也取决于数据。此外，对开罗以色列-哈马斯和平谈判的最新乐观情绪增强了投资者对风险较高资产的兴趣。在国内，新西兰储备银行本月将官方现金利率保持在5.5%，强调需要在一段持续的时间内保持政策限制，以使通胀率回到1-3%的目标区间。2024年前三个月，该国的年通货膨胀率降至4%，为2021年第二季度以来的最低水平。

The New Zealand dollar traded above $0.596, hovering around its highest levels in over two weeks as the US dollar weakened ahead of the Federal Reserve's policy meeting later in the week. Investors are anticipating a delay in rate cuts after a batch of sticky US inflation, and as Fed officials, including Chair Jerome Powell, have emphasized that even these plans are dependent on data. Additionally, the latest optimism over Israel-Hamas peace talks in Cairo boosts investors' appetite for riskier assets. Domestically, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand kept the official cash rate at 5.5% this month, emphasizing the need to keep policy restrictive for a sustained period to return inflation to its 1-3% target band. The country’s annual inflation eased to 4% in the first three months of 2024, the lowest since Q2 of 2021.

标准普尔/新西兰元50指数周一上涨0.94%，收于11916点，从六个多月来最糟糕的一个交易日反弹，领涨我的健康科技股。在经济方面，新西兰将于周三发布的就业报告预计将显示劳动力市场继续松动，失业率从之前的4.0%上升到第一季度的4.2%，为今年晚些时候的降息铺平了道路。与此同时，投资者等待美联储本周晚些时候的政策审查，以获得美国央行在经历了一系列棘手的美国通胀后何时首次降息的进一步线索，包括主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔在内的美联储官员强调，即使是这些计划也取决于数据。健康板块涨幅居前的是权重股费雪派克（2.2%）和埃博拉集团（2.2%）。其他显著增长来自奥克兰国际机场（1.3%）、Infratil（3.1%）、Spark NZ（1.3%）和Contact Energy（1.7%）。

The S&P/NZX 50 index rose 0.94% to close at 11,916 on Monday, rebounding from its worst session in over six months, led my health technology stocks. On the economic front, New Zealand’s jobs report, due on Wednesday, is expected to show the labour market continued to loosen with unemployment rate ticking up to 4.2% in the first quarter from 4.0% previously, paving the way for rate cuts later in the year. Meanwhile, investors awaited the Federal Reserve’s policy review later this week for further clues on when the US central bank would deliver its first interest rate cut after a batch of sticky US inflation, and as Fed officials, including Chair Jerome Powell, have emphasized that even these plans depend on data. Leading the gains in the health sector were heavyweights Fisher & Paykel (2.2%) and Ebos Group (2.2%). Other notable increases were seen from Aukland Intl Airport (1.3%), Infratil (3.1%), Spark NZ (1.3%), and Contact Energy (1.7%).