英国10年期政府债券收益率飙升至4.4%左右，达到11月初以来的最高点，反映了美国国债收益率的上升趋势，因为数据显示，第一季度美国就业成本强于预期，这强化了人们的信念，即美联储将在可预见的未来维持当前利率。因此，美联储在9月降息的可能性已经降低，而对今年剩余时间不在当前范围内降息的预期已经上升。相反，英格兰银行预计将于8月首次降息，2024年底第二次降息的可能性很大。4月，英国央行行长安德鲁·贝利对英国通胀率有望达到2%的目标表示乐观。然而，他的同事Megan Greene和Huw Pill警告说，不要过早考虑降息。

The UK 10-year government bond yield surged to around 4.4%, reaching its highest point since early November and mirroring the upward trend in US Treasury yields, as data revealing stronger-than-anticipated US employment costs in the first quarter reinforced the belief that the Federal Reserve will maintain its current interest rates for the foreseeable future. Consequently, the likelihood of a rate cut by the Fed in September has diminished, while expectations of no cuts within the current range for the rest of the year have risen. Conversely, the Bank of England is expected to enact its first rate cut in August, with a strong possibility of a second cut by the end of 2024. In April, BoE Governor Andrew Bailey expressed optimism as British inflation appeared on track to meet the 2% target. However, his colleagues Megan Greene and Huw Pill cautioned against premature consideration of interest rate reductions.

英镑稳定在1.25美元左右，而美元保持在11月以来的峰值附近，这得益于人们对英格兰银行在货币政策方面比美联储更加谨慎的预期。最近的市场情绪表明，英国央行在8月首次降息的可能性为80%，随后在今年降息的可能性则为60%。相反，美联储在9月首次降息的可能性已经降低，这反映出人们对将通胀控制在2%目标的进展缓慢的担忧。英国央行行长Andrew Bailey最近表示，英国通胀率似乎准备与2%的目标保持一致，而其同事Megan Greene和Huw Pill则采取了更强硬的语气，表示现在考虑降息还为时过早。

The British pound found stabilized around $1.25, while the US dollar held near its peak since November, fueled by expectations of a more cautious stance from the Bank of England compared to the US Federal Reserve regarding monetary policy. Recent market sentiment suggests an 80% probability of the BoE initiating its first move in August, followed by a 60% chance of a subsequent cut this year. Conversely, the likelihood of the Federal Reserve implementing its first rate cut in September has diminished, reflecting concerns over sluggish progress in reining in inflation to the 2% target. BoE Governor Andrew Bailey recently indicated that British inflation seemed poised to align with the 2% target, while colleagues Megan Greene and Huw Pill struck a more hawkish tone, suggesting it was premature to consider interest rate reductions.

标准普尔全球英国制造业采购经理人指数在2024年4月小幅上调至49.1，高于初步估计的48.7，但低于3月的20个月高点50.3。在市场状况不确定、客户库存减少和供应链中断的情况下，3月份产量和新订单都出现了短暂的回升，随后又回落到收缩区域。此外，新出口业务的下滑已连续27个月，德国、爱尔兰、亚洲和美国的进口疲软。就业水平也连续第19个月下降。在价格方面，投入品价格通胀加速至2023年2月以来的最高水平，产出费用通胀创下11个月新高。最后，由于对需求复苏、新产品发布、效率提高和市场状况改善的希望，4月份英国制造业的前景仍然乐观。

The S&P Global UK Manufacturing PMI was revised slightly higher to 49.1 in April 2024, up from a preliminary estimate of 48.7 but down from March's 20-month high of 50.3. Both output and new orders slipped back into contraction territory following short-lived upturns in March, amid uncertain market conditions, client destocking, and supply-chain disruption. Additionally, the downturn in new export business extended to 27 successive months, with reports of weaker intakes from Germany, Ireland, Asia, and the US. Employment levels were also down for the 19th consecutive month. On the price front, input price inflation accelerated to the highest since February 2023, and output charge inflation hit an 11-month high. Finally, the outlook for the UK manufacturing sector remained positive in April due to hopes for a revival in demand, new product launches, efficiency gains, and an improvement in market conditions.

周三，由于交易活动低迷，伦敦富时100指数微涨0.1%，至8155点，仍接近周二创下的8200点的近期历史新高，投资者在等待美联储即将做出的政策决定，特别是今年晚些时候可能的利率调整时仍持谨慎态度。在企业新闻中，葛兰素史克上调了全年利润预测，预计2024年上半年的销售额将高于上年下半年。然而，阿斯顿·马丁公布的第一季度税前亏损大于预期，而施乐辉则未达到市场对第一季度收入的预期。英国零售商Next在第一季度全价销售额增长5.7%后，维持了其年度利润预测。相反，达美乐披萨集团在报告第一季度销售额下降和订单下降后，第二季度的开局较慢。

London's FTSE 100 index edged up by 0.1% to 8,155 points on Wednesday amid subdued trading activity, remaining close to the recent record high of 8,200 points reached on Tuesday, as investors remained cautious as they awaited insights from the upcoming US Federal Reserve policy decision, particularly regarding potential rate adjustments later in the year. In corporate news, GSK revised its full-year profit forecast upwards and anticipated higher sales in the first half of 2024 compared to the latter half of the previous year. However, Aston Martin reported a larger-than-expected pretax loss for Q1, while Smith & Nephew fell short of market expectations for Q1 revenue. British retailer Next sustained its annual profit forecast following a 5.7% increase in Q1 full-price sales. Conversely, Domino's Pizza Group observed a slower start to the second quarter after reporting decreased sales and a decline in orders during Q1.