继2023年第四季度增长1.7%后,泰国2024年第一季度GDP同比增长1.5%,超过0.8%的预期。私人消费增长疲软(6.9%对第四季度的7.4%),而净贸易对服务出口的GDP有积极贡献,总出口增长(2.5%对第四季的4.9%)低于进口增长(5.3%对3.9%)。与此同时,固定投资比第四季度萎缩更多(-4.2%对-0.4%),而政府支出继续下降(-2.2%对-3.0%)。在生产方面,非农业活动稳定增长(2.0%),服务业增长(3.6%对3.9%),特别是批发和零售贸易(4.3%对5.1%)、信息和通信(6.7%对2.8%)以及运输和仓储(9.4%对7.0%)。与此同时,由于制造业产量的持续下降,农业(-3.5%对-0.6%)和工业(-1.2%对-1.5%)继续下降。NESDB将今年的GDP预期从之前的2.2%-3.2%修订为2.0%-3.0%。
Thailand’s GDP advanced 1.5% yoy in Q1 of 2024, beating expectations of 0.8%, following a 1.7% growth in Q4 of 2023. Private consumption expanded softer (6.9% vs 7.4% in Q4), while net trade contributed positively to the GDP from services export, with total exports rising (2.5% vs 4.9% in Q4) less than imports (5.3% vs 3.9%). Meanwhile, fixed investments shrank more than in Q4 (-4.2% vs -0.4%), while government spending continued to decline (-2.2% vs -3.0% in Q4). On the production side, activity in non-agriculture grew stable (at 2.0%) amid rises in the services sector (3.6% vs 3.9%), particularly in wholesale and retail trade (4.3% vs 5.1%), information and communication (6.7% vs 2.8%), and transportation and storage (9.4% vs 7.0%). Meanwhile, agriculture (-3.5% vs -0.6%) and industrials continued to drop (-1.2% vs -1.5%), due to a continual decline in manufacturing production. The NESDB revised its GDP outlook for this year to 2.0%-3.0% from a prior projection of 2.2%-3.2%.