加拿大3年期国债 (Canada3Y) 加自选

加拿大外国投资委员会的加拿大商业晴雨表是一个反映该国12个月商业业绩预期的长期指数，从上月的52.9降至2024年4月的47.5。最新数据显示，商业前景显著恶化，降至去年12月以来的最低水平，略多的企业主报告称，国内外需求不足是销售或生产增长的主要限制。还有报告称，通货膨胀压力很大，特别是工资和保险费用上涨。按部门划分，卫生和教育（-5.5分）、农业（-3.9分）和建筑业（-2.4分）有所下降。另一方面，一些行业涨幅不大，如专业服务业（+2分）和制造业（+1.9分）。基于3个月展望的短期乐观指数也下跌了5点，达到47点。

CFIB's Business Barometer in Canada, a long-term index reflecting 12-month forward expectations for business performance in the country, dropped to 47.5 in April 2024 from an upwardly revised 52.9 in the prior month. The latest reading indicated a significant deterioration in the business outlook to the lowest level since last December, with slightly more business owners reporting insufficient domestic/foreign demand as main limitation on sales or production growth. There were also reports of strong inflationary pressures, especially stemming from higher wages and insurance costs. By sectors, decreases were seen for health and education (-5.5 points), agriculture (-3.9 points) and construction (-2.4 points). On the other hand, some sectors have registered modest gains, such as professional services (+2 points) and manufacturing (+1.9 points). The short-term optimism index, based on a 3-month outlook, also lost five points, and reached 47.

标准普尔/多伦多证券交易所综合指数周四扭转早盘跌幅，小幅上涨至21885点，因大宗商品相关股票的支持超过了投资者对美联储降息预期延迟的悲观情绪。原油基准和黄金价格均上涨，能源和材料板块平均分别上涨0.72%和1.98%，抵消了其他七个主要板块的下跌。在表现最好的公司中，泰克资源的股价飙升8.7%，超过了2024年第一季度的收入预期。此外，艾芬豪矿业公司上涨4.9%，巴里克黄金公司上涨3.1%，电气石石油公司上涨3%，Arc资源公司上涨2.3%。与此同时，美国PCE核心通胀的加速助长了鹰派情绪。此外，Meta和IBM等公司令人失望的盈利报告进一步打压了投资者情绪，使科技板块平均下跌1.7%。Shopify下跌2.7%，CGI公司和Celestica公司紧随其后，各下跌2%。

The S&P/TSX Composite index reversed early session losses to close slightly higher at 21,885 on Thursday, as support from commodity-linked equities outweighed investor pessimism related to delayed expectations of Fed rate cuts. Both crude oil benchmarks and bullion prices rose, lifting the energy and materials sectors by an average of 0.72% and 1.98%, respectively, offsetting declines in all seven other major sectors. Among top performers, Teck Resources’ shares soared by 8.7% after surpassing revenue expectations for the first quarter of 2024. Additionally, Ivanhoe Mines gained 4.9%, followed by Barrick Gold up 3.1%, Tourmaline Oil up 3%, and Arc Resources up 2.3%. Meanwhile, accelerating core PCE inflation in the US fueled hawkish sentiments. Additionally, disappointing earnings reports from companies like Meta and IBM further weighed on investor sentiment, dragging the tech sector down by an average of 1.7%. Shopify lost 2.7%, followed by CGI Inc and Celestica, each down 2%.

加拿大10年期政府债券收益率高于3.87%，创下近六个月新高，追随美国国债走高，因为美国通胀和劳动力数据抵消了疲软的GDP增长，抑制了美联储降息的预期。尽管美国经济增长弱于预期，但核心PCE价格指数超过了预期，加上失业救济申请人数创下两个月新低，劳动力市场强劲，缓解了宽松借贷成本的压力。与此同时，加拿大消费者支出停滞不前，第一季度零售额没有增长，突显了经济减速。最近的数据还显示，3月份国内年通胀率为2.9%，低于预期，加拿大央行监测的核心通胀指标下降幅度超过预期，暗示潜在通胀将降低。这种情况可能会促使降息，支持加拿大政府债券，缓解美国国债的大幅抛售。

The yield on the Canadian 10-year government bond was above 3.87%, marking a near six-month high and tracking US Treasuries higher, as US inflation and labor data countered sluggish GDP growth, dampening expectations for Fed interest rate cuts. Despite weaker-than-expected US economic growth, the core PCE price index surpassed estimates, alongside a robust labor market indicated by jobless claims at a two-month low, eased pressure for accommodative borrowing costs. Meanwhile, stagnant consumer spending in Canada, as evidenced by no growth in Q1 retail sales, underscored economic deceleration. Recent data also showed domestic annual inflation at 2.9% in March, below expectations, with core inflation measures monitored by the Canadian central bank declining more than anticipated, hinting at expectations for lower underlying inflation. This scenario may prompt interest rate cuts, supporting Canadian government bonds and alleviating the sharper sell-off seen in US Treasuries.

标普/多伦多证券交易所综合指数周四下跌0.6%，低于21750点，受美联储货币政策前景鹰派转变后金融和科技股下跌的推动。最近的美国GDP数据显示，经济明显放缓，而核心PCE价格的价格压力越来越大，助长了鹰派情绪。此外，Meta和IBM等公司令人失望的盈利报告进一步打压了投资者情绪，使科技板块平均下跌1.8%。Shopify和CGI分别下跌2.2%，Open Text下跌1.6%，Constellation下跌1.4%。金融部门也表现不佳，新斯科舍银行下跌2.3%，BMO下跌1%。在盈利方面，泰克资源公司2024年第一季度的收入超过了预期，股价上涨了6%以上。

The S&P/TSX Composite index slipped 0.6% below the 21,750 level on Thursday, driven by losses in financial and tech stocks following a hawkish shift in the Fed’s monetary policy outlook. Recent US GDP data revealed a notable economic slowdown, while mounting price pressures in core PCE prices fueled hawkish sentiments. Additionally, disappointing earnings reports from companies like Meta and IBM further weighed on investor sentiment, dragging the tech sector down by an average of 1.8%. Shopify and CGI Inc each lost 2.2%, followed by Open Text down 1.6%, and Constellation down 1.4%. The financial sector also underperformed, with Bank of Nova Scotia losing 2.3% and BMO down 1%. On the earnings front, Teck Resources surpassed revenue expectations for the first quarter of 2024, boosting their shares by over 6%.