意大利富时MIB指数 (FTSEMIB) 加自选

在欧洲央行董事会成员Isabel Schnabel警告6月后不要进一步降息后，意大利10年期BTP收益率升至3.8%，远离5月15日达到的3.7%的4周低点。在一次采访中，Schnabel表示，根据数据和新的欧元体系工作人员预测，6月份的降息可能是合理的，然而，她强调了6月份之后的不确定性，强调了实现稳定通胀的困难。另一方面，本周公布的美国数据显示，4月通胀和经济增长放缓，提高了美联储降息的预期。市场目前预计，2024年欧洲央行将降息68个基点，低于周四的72个基点，美联储将降息46个基点，高于前一交易日的50个基点。

The Italian 10-year BTP yield rose to the 3.8% level, moving away from the 4-week lows of 3.7% reached on May 15th, following remarks by ECB board member Isabel Schnabel, who cautioned against further rate cuts after June. In an interview, Schnabel suggested that a rate cut in June might be justified based on data and new Eurosystem staff projection, however, she highlighted the uncertainty beyond June, stressing the difficulty of achieving stable inflation. On the other hand, US data released this week indicated a slowdown in inflation and economic growth for April, raising expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts. Markets are now pricing in 68 basis points of ECB rate cuts in 2024, down from 72 basis points on Thursday, and 46 basis points for the Fed, down from 50 basis points in the previous session.

周五，富时MIB指数微跌0.1%，收于35400点附近，与欧洲同行一致，交易员们继续评估货币政策前景，美联储和欧洲央行官员的评论表明，利率可能会在很长一段时间内保持高位。在企业方面，Interpump Group是盘中最大的落后者，下跌了2.5%。其他显著下跌的股票包括普睿司曼、依维柯集团和坎帕里，跌幅均超过1%。相反，Saipem成为表现最好的股票，在从Azure Energy获得一份价值约8.5亿美元的安哥拉新离岸合同后，涨幅超过2%。本周，富时MIB有望上涨2%。

The FTSE MIB edged down by 0.1% to trade near the 35,400 mark on Friday, in line with its European peers, as traders continue to asses the monetary policy outlook, with comments from Fed and ECB officials indicating that interest rates are likely to remain elevated for an extended period. On the corporate front, Interpump Group was the session's biggest laggard, declining by 2.5%. Other notable decliners included Prysmian, Iveco Group, and Campari, each falling over 1%. Conversely, Saipem emerged as a top-performing stock, gaining more than 2% after securing a new offshore contract worth approximately 850 million dollars in Angola from Azure Energy. For the week, the FTSE MIB is on track for a 2% increase.

意大利2024年3月的贸易顺差为43.41亿欧元，低于市场预期的47.7亿欧元。这一数据高于上年同期的33.27亿欧元盈余，因为自俄罗斯入侵乌克兰以来，意大利经济的关键商品价格有所回落，限制了外国采购的营业额。进口额较上年下降11.2%，至498.39亿欧元，天然气价格下跌导致其采购额下降35.4%，而原油价格的放缓使进口额下降32.6%。木材和木制品（-14.7%）以及机械和设备（-14.1%）的进口也有所下降。另一方面，受基本金属和金属产品（-19.3%）以及纺织产品（-16.5%）销售额下降的推动，出口下降8.9%，至541.8亿欧元。

Italy posted a trade surplus of EUR 4.341 billion in March of 2024, below market expectations of EUR 4.77 billion. This reading came above a surplus of EUR 3.327 billion from the corresponding period of the previous year, as prices for key commodities for the Italian economy have retreated since the start of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, limiting turnover in foreign purchases. Imports slumped by 11.2% from the previous year to EUR 49.839 billion, with lower natural gas prices driving their purchasing turnover to slump by 35.4%, while a moderation in crude oil prices lowered imports by 32.6%. Imports also fell for wood & wood products (-14.7%) and machinery & equipment (-14.1%). On the other hand, exports fell by 8.9% to EUR 54.18 billion, driven by lower sales of basic metals & metal products (-19.3%) and textile products (-16.5%).

周四，富时MIB指数稳定在35350点附近，保持了16年来的高点，并暂停了与其他欧洲市场一致的五天涨势，因为交易员关注企业盈利。埃尼集团是最大的落后者之一，在意大利经济和财政部宣布出售这家石油巨头2.8%的股份后，股价下跌超过2%。Stellantis也拖累该指数，股价下跌近2%。从积极的方面来看，在穆迪将锡耶纳银行的评级上调一级后，该银行上涨了2.5%。其他表现最好的包括Bper Banca（+3.1%）、Snam（+2.3%）和Ferrari（+1.5%）。

The FTSE MIB held steady around the 35,350 mark on Thursday, maintaining 16-year highs and pausing a five-day rally in line with other European markets, as traders focused on corporate earnings. Eni was among the biggest laggards, falling over 2% after the Italian Ministry of Economy and Finance announced the sale of a 2.8% stake in the oil giant. Stellantis also weighed on the index, with shares down nearly 2%. On the positive side, Banca Monte Paschi Siena rose by 2.5% after Moody's upgraded the bank's rating by one level. Other top performers included Bper Banca (+3.1%), Snam (+2.3%), and Ferrari (+1.5%).